The Toronto Blue Jays were led by superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to the doorstep of a World Series title last season, but while the slugger is expected to be among the team’s best players in 2026, another player is projected to equal his output.
Three analysts from MLB.com outlined the top players for each team heading into the upcoming season. The trio leaned on FanGraphs 2026 Projections to compile the list, with Wins Above Replacement as the focal point.
Guerrero is projected for 4.9 fWAR next season. Right alongside him is catcher Alejandro Kirk, who earned an identical 4.9 fWAR projection. Kirk led the team at 4.7 last year.
Toronto Blue Jays Projections See Big Year For Alejandro Kirk
Kirk is behind only American League MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh in fWAR projection among catchers. Kirk’s bat is also expected to be well above average, with FanGraphs predicting a 117 wRC+ and a .273/.350/.423 slash line.
Kirk is coming off a standout 2025 that saw him earn the second All-Star selection of his career. The backstop slugged a career-best 15 home runs while maintaining a .282 batting average over 506 plate appearances. Kirk continued to show some of the best plate discipline skills in the league, striking out just 11.7% of the time while walking at a 9.5% clip.
As the MLB.com analysts point out, Kirk’s projection is buoyed by his strong defensive skills. The glove is what pushes Kirk into the upper echelon of catchers around the league. He led the position by a significant margin in blocks above average last season. Kirk ranked in the 98th percentile for framing. Statcast had him tied for the second-most valuable defender at any position. Kirk’s 22 Fielding Run Value matched Ceddanne Rafaela and was behind only Patrick Bailey.
Toronto paced the league in DEF last season. They’re anticipated to do it again this year. DEF is a metric that ascertains defensive value relative to league average, with positional differences factored in.
How Will the Blue Jays Replace Bichette and Santander?
Toronto is facing multiple holes in the middle of the lineup for 2026. Longtime shortstop Bo Bichette left for the New York Mets in free agency. Subtracting his declining glove will boost the defense, but losing his bat will be a significant blow to the offense. Bichette delivered one of the biggest moments of the World Series, smashing a three-run home run off of Shohei Ohtani in Game 7.
Anthony Santander was supposed to be back with the team this season after missing a significant chunk of the 2025 campaign. Instead, he’ll be sidelined for the majority of the year after undergoing shoulder surgery. The Blue Jays have yet to see a return on the investment they made in Santander, as he’s played just 54 games since signing a five-year, $92.5 million deal.
Kirk and Guerrero will remain key cogs in the middle of the lineup. Toronto also got a resurgent season from George Springer, plus a notable step forward for former prospect Addison Barger. One key to picking up the slack without Bichette and Santander will be the addition of Kazuma Okamoto. The Nippon Professional Baseball star slashed .327/.416/.598 in his final season in Japan.
Surprising Blue Jays Player Projected to Match Vlad Jr.’s Production