The Toronto Blue Jays have not done themselves any favors down the stretch of the 2026 MLB season.
They began the regular season’s final week on Monday night in Baltimore, and they allowed two eighth-inning runs to the Orioles in a 4-3 triumph for the hosts that makes life even tougher on the Blue Jays if they still want to get to the postseason.
Toronto is a year removed from playing in extra innings in Game 7 of the World Series. They were probably a foot away on two different occasions from winning the whole thing.
And now here they are, in late September of the next season, on the verge of missing the playoffs.
Are the Blue Jays Eliminated?
No, the Toronto Blue Jays are not yet eliminated from the American League playoff picture — but it’s close.
Through action on Sept. 21, the Blue Jays are 77-80.
Their only hope is to get the third-and-final Wild Card spot in the American League, which is currently held by the 80-76 Chicago White Sox.
Also in between the White Sox and the Blue Jays are the 77-79 Houston Astros.
Chicago and Houston both have six games to play, while Toronto has just five games left.
The Blue Jays are 3.5-games behind the White Sox with five to play, so it’s almost over, but not quite.
How Blue Jays Are Eliminated on Tuesday, Sept. 22
The Blue Jays can get eliminated on Tuesday night with a combination of three events:
That would mean Toronto has no path to catching either Chicago or Cleveland, so then it would be all over.
Of note: The Blue Jays do hold the tiebreaker with the Guardians, so if Cleveland were to fall off, they’d beat them out if they had the same record. Toronto doesn’t hold the tiebreaker with the White Sox, though.
How Blue Jays Can Still Make Playoffs
The Blue Jays cannot afford almost any bad results down the stretch to get in.
With five games remaining, their best chance is to win all five and get to 82-80. If they do that, they then need the White Sox to go 1-5 down the stretch and finish 81-81, or the Guardians to go 0-6 or 1-5 and finish behind the White Sox in the AL Central at 82-80 or 81-81.
Even if those AL Central teams comply, the Blue Jays then also need to leapfrog either the Astros (77-79) or Texas Rangers (78-78) in the final week. One of those teams will win the AL West. The other would also stake a claim for the Wild Card depending on how they finish.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance? Yeah, barely for the Blue Jays, but they’re still breathing right now.
Are the Blue Jays Eliminated? How Toronto’s AL Playoff Picture Looks in Wild Card Standings