The Toronto Blue Jays‘ late playoff push needs Dylan Cease to be sharp.
The problem is that Cease’s stuff isn’t playing as well as it did early in the season.
Interestingly, the Blue Jays‘ broadcaster Sportsnet shared a stat about Cease on Friday night that raised some alarm bells:
Every month of this season, Cease’s average fastball velocity has gone down.
Let’s dig into it.
Dylan Cease Velocity Problem
Cease signed a $210 million, seven-year deal with the Blue Jays in the offseason and came out on fire.
In April, he averaged 97.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball.
Cease kept that exact mark on his heater in May.
It declined to 97.4 miles per hour in June.
Then in July, Cease was down to 96.7 MPH on his four-seam fastball on average.
His August velocity was an average of 95.8 miles per hour.
And in September, Cease has been at 95.3 miles per hour on average on his four-seam fastball.
Here’s a look at that chart:
Dylan Cease hopes to regain the velocity he had earlier this season pic.twitter.com/fw9muEpLVt
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) September 18, 2026
Of course, it’s relevant to know whether the stats match these trends.
Dylan Cease Trends
Luckily, Baseball Reference has a splits page that allows us to break things down by month.
And when we look at that, there really doesn’t appear to be anything to worry about.
Cease allowed a .572 OPS in his six combined starts in March and April.
That did raise to a .648 opponent OPS in May, but that’s his worst of the season.
In June, it was down to .528, then .415 in July and .501 in August.
Through his first three September starts, Cease has allowed a .200 opponent batting average and a .584 opponent OPS.
His ERA by month has never been worse than the 3.23 it was in May. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has remained relatively consistent, too.
So the velocity doesn’t add up with the rest.
So What Gives?
Pitchers do often lose a little velocity over the course of a season, so it’s not crazy to think that’s the simplest explanation for what has happened to Cease.
He has also changed his pitch mix this season compared to earlier in his career — including heavy changeup usage that he never used to have — and so he may just be continuing to discover what he can do as the season has gone along.
Yes, it’s fair to worry a bit about his arm health with the velocity decline, and the season would get even longer if the Blue Jays make the playoffs.
But Toronto would gladly make the postseason and hand the ball to Cease for Game 1 of a series if that’s an option. Cease has managed his decline in velocity just fine.
Something Might Be Wrong With Dylan Cease — But Maybe Not