Kyle Larson made a surprising Talladega claim before Sunday’s NASCAR race, saying he feels more confident at the iconic Alabama superspeedway than at Phoenix.
“Yeah, I’m more confident here than I am at Phoenix,” Larson told reporters before Sunday’s YellaWood 500 at Talladega. But Larson has had significantly more success at Phoenix, his failed outing last week notwithstanding, than he ever has at Talladega.
A Phoenix tire failure cut his Chase lead from 49 points to five over Christopher Bell, according to NASCAR.com, and Sunday’s YellaWood 500 brings crash risk that can erase that margin in a single lap.
“Yeah, as bad as my results are here, I still look at it as an opportunity, for sure, to just get out of here and have a shot to win,” Larson said, as quoted by Fox Sports reporter Bob Pockrass.
“I feel like, just speaking for us in the No. 5, we’ve scored stage points in a lot of stages here. We’ve been up front at the ends of the races. I’ve been in the top five here a few times in the last few years,” Larson said.
Larson is winless in 23 Cup starts at Talladega, with three top-five finishes, five top-10s, a 22.0 average finish and seven DNFs.
Two of his three top-five finishes at the track came in his last four starts there, including a runner-up result in April 2025. His most recent visit, in April 2026, ended with an accident and a 40th-place finish.
He has earned 91 Talladega stage points in the Next Gen era, second only to Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott’s 94, according to NASCAR.com. Those totals show a car running near the front during races even when the finishes do not follow.
Kyle Larson’s Phoenix Record Versus Talladega Confidence
The Phoenix numbers look far stronger on paper. Larson has one win, 12 top-five finishes and 16 top-10s in 25 starts there, along with an 11.0 average finish. His lone victory came in the November 2021 championship race.
Larson has said those results overstate how fast his car runs at the track. He called his Phoenix car “terrible” and placed it around 11th to 13th in average speed, according to EssentiallySports.
Last Sunday matched that description. Larson started 22nd, scored no stage points and fell a lap down in Stage 2 before a wave-around returned him to the lead lap, according to The News-Journal.
A right-front tire failure on Lap 281 then sent him into the wall. He finished 34th, and the result ended a streak of four consecutive top-five finishes at Phoenix, according to Yahoo Sports.
Superspeedways have been a separate problem all season. Larson is winless in 58 drafting-track starts, the longest active drought in the series, and owns a series-worst 30.6 average finish on those tracks this year, according to TribLive.
“So, yeah, I look at it as an opportunity, but also an opportunity the other way. If you do get caught up in things and get caught up in a crash, you can really lose a lot of ground here,” Larson said, as quoted by Pockrass.
Kyle Larson’s Chase Lead and Talladega Predictions
Bell needs to outscore Larson by six points to take over the Chase lead.
A top-10 finish with stage points for Bell, paired with a poor day for Larson, would produce that swing. A crash or a win would move the standings by a far larger amount.
Chase Briscoe sits 24 points back and Denny Hamlin trails by 31. Martinsville on Nov. 1 and Homestead-Miami on Nov. 8 remain after Talladega.
Neil Paine’s model cut Larson’s title chances from 72.5 percent after Charlotte to 32.6 percent after Phoenix, according to NASCAR.com. Bell now leads at 35.2 percent, with Briscoe at 14.6 percent.
Caesars Sportsbook listed Larson at +175 and Bell at +225 for the title around Oct. 22, according to The Racing Experts.
Race-win odds favor Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano, typically in the +800 to +1100 range, according to The Spread. Briscoe, the defending race winner, along with Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Carson Hocevar and Austin Cindric also draw mentions.
Mike Organ picked Larson to win the race as a rebound from Phoenix, according to The Tennessean. Other analysts selected Elliott and Hocevar. Larson starts 10th.
Kyle Larson Makes Surprising Talladega Claim Before NASCAR Race