Kyle Larson will start in the 22nd position for Sunday’s Freeway Insurance 500 at Phoenix Raceway, a development that could place his Chase points lead in jeopardy.
Only three of 60 Cup winners at Phoenix started 22nd or worse, according to NASCAR journalist Jonathan Fjeld. That’s only 5 percent, so Larson faces tough odds when it comes to winning, or accumulating significant points, with just four Chase races left.
Team Penske owned qualifying Saturday. Ryan Blaney’s pole-winning lap of 26.250 seconds edged teammate Joey Logano’s 26.282 by 0.032 seconds, which gave Penske the front row. Joe Gibbs Racing’s Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell took spots three through five, and William Byron led the Hendrick Motorsports contingent in 10th.
Larson, driver of the No. 5 Hendrick Chevrolet, turned a lap of 26.769 seconds and landed 22nd. His car got loose between Turns 1 and 2, a big wiggle that cost him time and spots, according to racing reporter Cole Cusumano. Larson sat around 18th with cars still to run before the field pushed him back.
No wreck or penalty shaped the grid. Actual qualifying times set the order, not the metrics formula that lined up four of the first six Chase races, when Larson averaged a 6.2 starting spot. NASCAR shared video of Larson’s frustration afterward.
Kyle Larson’s Record Starting Outside the Top 10
Larson owns 34 Cup wins and started outside the top 10 for only five of them, or 15 percent, according to NASCAR reporter Seth Eggert. Larson’s worst starting spot in any victory was 19th at Martinsville in spring 2023, when a late two-tire call put him at the front. He has never won from outside the top 20.
Phoenix history raises the degree of difficulty. Ricky Rudd won from 29th in October 1995, Matt Kenseth from 28th in November 2002 and Ryan Newman from 22nd in March 2017. Each of the last 18 Phoenix winners started inside the top 15, and in the Next Gen era the best finish from 22nd is Kyle Busch’s seventh in November 2022, with 20th the average, according to Fjeld.
The low start affects Larson in specific ways. Track position and clean air matter at Phoenix, and the first stage is short. Larson will run in traffic while the Penske front row and the three Gibbs cars start up front, which makes stage points harder to collect.
Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels have recovered from rough starts before. At Las Vegas in the Chase, the team made major adjustments, lost a lap and still finished second, as Fjeld also noted.
Kyle Larson’s Chase Lead and Phoenix Struggles
Larson enters Phoenix 49 points ahead of Hamlin, with Bell 51 back and Briscoe 65 behind, according to EssentiallySports. He finished sixth at Charlotte, his worst result of the Chase, while Briscoe won for a second straight week and Bell ran second.
Larson has two wins and a 2.8 average finish through six Chase races. Four consecutive top-five finishes at Phoenix back that record, though he did not lead the most laps in any of them.
Larson was asked about the No. 5 team’s performance at the track.
“No, we’re terrible,” he said, as quoted by SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.
“We’re probably an 11th to 13th place car typically,” he said, according to EssentiallySports. He added that the team would run around 20th if it were dropped there, which is roughly where Sunday’s grid spot puts him.
He described Phoenix as a track short on grip, especially in Turn 1, and one that does not fit his driving style. Pit strategy, restarts, blocking and execution have produced his recent finishes, not raw pace.
Larson does not need to win Sunday to protect his lead. Phoenix, Talladega, Martinsville and Homestead remain, and he has 312 laps to climb from 22nd.
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