
The NBA lottery went down on Sunday ahead of the league’s annual redraft combine in Chicago, and the results sent a wave of surprise over the league. The Wizards held on to the top pick, while two tankers–the Kings and the Nets.–took significant drops based on the drawing, down to Nos. 6 and 7. The tanking Pacers saw their big goal for draft night (coming away with a top-4 pick) disappear thanks to the Ivica Zubac deal, which forces them to send the No. 5 pick to the Clippers. .
There was plenty of drama. Here’s how the draft order shaped up after the lottery, and we’ll get into where we are projecting picks.
1. Washington Wizards
2. Utah Jazz
3. Memphis Grizzlies
4. Chicago Bulls
5. LA Clippers
6. Brooklyn Nets
7. Sacramento Kings
8. Atlanta Hawks
9. Dallas Mavericks
10. Milwaukee Bucks
11. Golden State Warriors
12. Oklahoma City Thunder
13. Miami Heat
14. Charlotte Hornets
- Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU. Washington is not known for its lottery luck, but it arrived nonetheless. This is not a place for the Wiz to overthink. No matter what they do with, say, Anthony David or Trae Young, Dybantsa should be the pick, a versatile 6-foot-9 scorer who has a natural, springy athleticism.
- Utah Jazz: Darryn Peterson, SG, Kansas. The Jazz are pretty well-stocked at most positions, so they could go Boozer here. But Peterson is a versatile scorer, a scoring wing option who has an NBA game. Many in the NBA were put off by Peterson’s strange trip at Kansas this year because of his cramping issues, but no one is going to drop him too far.
- Memphis Grizzlies: Cameron Boozer, PF, Duke. The Grizzlies will be eager to move on from the Ja Morant era, and while there are some pieces in place, tabbing a huge upside big man is a good start. Scout: “He has so much skill around the basket, he knows how to win, and he makes everyone around him better. He will score 25 points and still throw elbows, set screens, dive on the floor. He is a guy you want on your team.”
- Chicago Bulls: Caleb Wilson, PF, North Carolina. The Bulls need someone who can be a focal point of the franchise, and maybe that could be Wilson. His raw athleticism at 6-foot-10 will get him into the Top 10, maybe the Top 5. He can’t shoot (26% from the 3-point line), and whomever drafts him will gamble that he can change that over time. A late-season thumb injury and UNC’s disastrous season won’t hurt his stock much. There’s too much talent.
- LA Clippers (from Indiana Pacers): Keaton Wagler, G, Illinois. The Clips were facing having to sit on their hands throughout the draft process but a good bit of luck saw them leap and now, hopefully, sustain it. Wagler averaged 17.9 points with 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists this season, shooting 39.7% from the 3-point line. Scout: “His upside is not as high as some other guys, but he is a very smart, very purely talented scorer and ballhandler. I love how he sees a game and picks it apart. That’s a skill that translates to the next level.”
- Brooklyn Nets: Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston. He’s not a prototypical NBA point guard, in that his game relies on downhill speed and midrange jumpers. But Flemings is a good shooter who can develop his 3-ball and has high defensive upside. He’s smart and polished, probably an ideal long-term running mate for whomever else is partnered with.
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- Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas. Acuff’s stock rose steadily throughout the season, and he came out of the year as an excellent scorer who also developed as a playmaker and leader. The Kings need a focal point of the franchise, and right now, that’s lacking.
- Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans): Brayden Burries, G, Arizona. The Hawks love what CJ McCollum gave them, but they are completely lacking a young point guard to bring along. They’re also short on shooting, and the hope is that Burries could change that. He’s a 6-foot-4 two-way combo guard who can hold his own on an NBA floor from the get-go, and finished the year at 39.1% on 3-point tries.
- Dallas Mavericks: Mikel Brown, Jr., PG, Louisville. The Mavericks will be seeking trades before the NBA deadline next month, but if they keep the pick, an underachieving but very talented Brown would be the prize.
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- Milwaukee Bucks: Labaron Philon, PG, Alabama. Scout: “He is all over the board. I think where he lands will depend on whether he gets a team who sees him as a starting point guard—and the way he played to close the season and into the tournament, I think his stock is up.”
- Golden State Warriors: Yaxel Lendeborg, PF, Michigan. Lendeborg is a natural fit with the Warriors if they hang onto this pick–don’t count out a trade. Lendeborg is a well-seasoned prospect whose age is an issue–most lottery picks are into their second contracts at Lendeborg’s age. But for the Warriors, the experience is welcome. Scout: “He’s going to be 24 in September, and that’s the big thing with him—he is ready to play in the NBA but you’d expect him to be more of a versatile, dirty-work kind of role player. That’s not a bad thing, but he fits best with a contender. Some teams might be looking for a bigger swing.”
- Oklahoma City Thunder (via Los Angeles Clippers): Karim Lopez, F, New Zealand Breakers. Lopez has all the physical attributes (6-foot-9, 7-foot-1 wingspan) to make scouts’ mouths water. He showed some promise but didn’t quite put it together in his NBL season, where he averaged 11.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 49% shooting. The NBL-to-NBA pathway has not worked out to be the pipeline that Aussies hoped it would become, so there is some wariness–Lopez’s workouts will be very important.
- Miami Heat: Hannes Steinbach, PF, Washington. Anytime you get a German prospect from Wurzburg, the imagination is going to run wild. But Steinbach is not Dirk—he is, instead, a dominant and polished rebounder who led the nation with 11.8 boards per game. The Heat are crowded up front but it’s expected that they will make some moves this offseason. They might not even keep this pick, in fact.
- Charlotte Hornets: Jayden Quaintance, PF/C, Kentucky. Expect the Hornets to seek a big guy here. Quaintance is the wildcard of this draft, athletic at 6-foot-10 but coming off ACL surgery this season. He went out again after a brief return this winter, an unfortunate bit of punctuation on a frustrating year. The knee is an obvious concern, but if healthy, Quaintance can be a defensive force inside. High risk, high reward, and maybe a gamble the Hornets can afford to take.
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- Chicago Bulls (via the Portland Trail Blazers): Nate Ament, SF, Tennessee. The Blazers’ playoff trip means the Bulls get this pick and they can gamble here. Ament had high expectations, and while he was not great as a freshman (16.7 points, 39.9% shooting), he has talent. Scout: “Up and down year for him. It was good he came back after getting hurt (ankle injury in late February), but there’s a lot of question marks there. He’s a shooter at 6-foot-10, though, and he showed enough to keep him in the lottery (range). You just have to trust that you can develop him.”
- Memphis Grizzlies (via Orlando Magic): Morez Johnson, PF, Michigan. Johnson has shown himself to be more versatile and efficient than his reputation held coming into the season after spending last year with Illinois. He’s a rim-runner first and foremost, but he can defend, score out of dribble handoffs and has excelled in a double-big lineup, which more and more NBA teams like.Big question: Does he stay in the draft?
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Philadelphia 76ers): Aday Mara, C, Michigan. Mara has boosted his stock in recent weeks, mostly thanks to his play in the NCAA tournament and his 2.6 blocks per game. At 7-foot-3, has been showing a bit more variety in his offensive game, creating his own shots and scoring. Aday’s advantages are mostly defensive, and with Isaiah Hartenstein possibly leaving in the offseason, Aday can step in.
- Charlotte Hornets (via Phoenix Suns): Cameron Carr, SF, Baylor. Carr is a high-volume scorer entering a league that has turned up its nose as high-volume scorers. But he is 6-foot-6 with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and good shooting ability—he’ll just need a team and system to tame him a bit.
- Toronto Raptors: Chris Cenac Jr., PF/C, Houston. The draft has size, and that could hurt Cenac, who is a candidate to return to college. But he could do well with good NBA development, too, having failed to live up to his pre-college billing. Scout: “He is a risk, all the big guys in this draft are a risk. You’d like to see more rim protection, you’d like to see more consistency. But he can develop into a stretch big guy, and that’s at a premium, so he probably winds up in the lottery. There’s a lot of untapped potential.”
- San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta Hawks): Amari Allen, SF, Alabama. Allen is a return-to-school possibility, but he is seen as NBA ready. Scout: “If someone does not give him a first-round promise, he could go back (to school). But he is a smart player who has some areas of development still in front of him—I think a playoff team would give him a good look and maybe promise him.”
Lakers, Knicks Need to Find Depth
- Detroit Pistons (via Minnesota Timberwolves). Isaiah Evans, SF, Duke. Evans has slowly built up his stock after an inconsistent start, and appears to be firm as a Top 20 pick. He’s a durable three-level scorer whose game should translate well to the NBA.
- Philadelphia 76ers (via Houston Rockets): Koa Peat, PF, Arizona. Peat is 6-foot-8 and plays with some power, with the potential to land in the lottery depending on how things shake out with the other PFs in this draft—there is depth in this draft but not necessarily with size. How a team views him is probably based on whether it thinks he can develop a 3-pointer (6-for-19 in his college career).
- Atlanta Hawks (via Cleveland Cavaliers): Christian Anderson, G, Texas Tech. The fact that teams are more likely to be looking for size in this draft is probably the only thing that would hold Anderson’s stock into the 20s. He is a very good shooter (41.5% from the 3-point line this year) and playmaker who can play on and off the ball.
- New York Knicks: Tarris Reed, C, UConn. The Knicks will need to go big and might be hoping that an earlier prospect (Mara, Cenac) is still around here. That’s looking less likely, though. They’re probably going to seek to replace Mitchell Robinson in the offseason, and though Reed is not Robinson, he does a pretty good impression–tough, physical and a space-eater in the paint.
- Los Angeles Lakers: Allen Graves, PF, Santa Clara. Graves is a late climber who could secure a first-round spot and opt to move forward in the NBA, though he is certainly a candidate to go back to college. He is the kind of do-it-all contributor that the analytics folks will love. Scout: “If he comes out, he is probably going to move up, because he is so efficient, he makes winning plays, he is young and he got better as the year went on. Get him in workouts and interviews and he is the kind of kid someone is going to fall in love with.”
- Denver Nuggets: Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa. Stirtz will be 23 in the fall, and that will be counted against him in the draft. But not for the Nuggets, who prefer their draftees to be polished and ready to play. Stirtz will need to add strength and physicality, but he is a polished playmaker who can shoot from deep.
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- Boston Celtics: Dailyn Swain, G/F, Texas. The Celtics are expected to look for a big guy here, but they might not pass on a versatile talent like Swain. Scout: “He is 6-foot-8 and he has always been sort of a question mark. But the more this season has gone on, and now the NCAA tournament, you see him converting potential into performance. He is passing better, he is shooting better, he is making better decisions. And he’s just scratching the surface.”
- Minnesota Timberwolves (via Detroit Pistons): Meleek Thomas, G, Arkansas. Thomas is not the long-term answer at point guard the Wolves will need to consider, but he is a very talented scorer and defender who could be a weapon off the bench. He did not get to show much playmaking at Arkansas, but he could develop as a secondary ballhandler.
- Cleveland Cavaliers (via San Antonio Spurs): Ebuka Okorie, PG, Stanford. Playing for the Cardinal meant that Okorie has been largely overlooked, but he is a candidate to rise up some boards in the coming weeks. He averaged 23.2 points in the ACC last year, though there are questions about how his game translates to the NBA.
- Dallas Mavericks (via Oklahoma City Thunder): Alex Karaban, PF, UConn. The Mavericks have some youth, but they’re close to turning a corner, and want to start putting win-now players on the roster. Karaban will be 24 in November, and that is not a negative for the Mavericks, who would welcome a polished big man. A 17-and-11 showing in the NCAA final, even in a loss, should give Karaban a boost.
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