The Los Angeles Lakers offseason moves have been one of the top stories in the NBA this season. Any time losing LeBron James will see that dominate their offseason with question marks, but the franchise believes they have a roster built for Luka Doncic to thrive. Unfortunately, the biggest problem comes back to forecasting the Lakers doing better than other West teams.
Bet MGM’s over/under total forecasts the Lakers to be the sixth best team in the West:
Oklahoma City Thunder: 62.5
San Antonio Spurs: 59.5
Denver Nuggets: 49.5
Minnesota Timberwolves: 48.5
Houston Rockets: 47.5
Lakers: 46.5
Portland Trail Blazers: 42.5
Golden State Warriors: 40.5
The over/under figures are meant to be in the half area of where the team will finish in total wins. Projections see the Lakers finishing sixth where they would just make the confirmed playoff seeds and avoid having to take part in the play-in games. Austin Reaves and Walker Kessler must have strong seasons for the Lakers to get close to 47 wins.
It is worth noting that just three wins separate the projections between the third and sixth team in Bet MGM’s forecasting. This means it can come down to Doncic, Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, and Nikola Jokic all trying to lead their teams to the next level.
Why This Could Be Negative For Lakers
No team with Luka as the face of the franchise would be content being a sixth seed since that implies a quick elimination in the first two rounds. The Lakers were a top four seed over the past two seasons with JJ Redick as the head coach.
Bet MGM is quite fair since all five West teams slotted above the Lakers have strong arguments. Houston can be argued against since they showed poor chemistry last season after Durant allegedly insulted Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith on hidden social media accounts.
The Lakers will have a tough task either way and will need Doncic to step up as a real MVP candidate for this roster to get into the top four seeds. Luka must play on the same level as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama for the Lakers to contend for a title.
Why This Could Be Positive For Lakers
The small gap between the teams outside of the top two means that a few variables can help or hurt teams. Houston, Denver, and Minnesota all have their own question marks. The Timberwolves sacrificed depth to add LaMelo Ball, and his injury history is a huge concern.
Denver added DeMar DeRozan and failed to retain Peyton Watson to see their entire identity changing after a disappointing ending last season with a first-round exit. Every team but San Antonio and Oklahoma City could realistically flounder.
The Lakers would need to have their best-case scenario of Luka leading the role players to play their best basketball. Losing LeBron and Rui Hachimura hurts the starting lineup, but the team has some interesting pieces that could pan out if Doncic is playing at the level he did for the Dallas Mavericks when they made the NBA Finals.
Lakers Projected To Barely Make Playoffs Via Over/Under Props