A new survey of NBA executives suggests LeBron James is more likely to pass on a return to his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers than many expect, with one rival contender emerging as the leading destination.
The survey’s results directly challenge the growing belief that a Cavaliers reunion is inevitable—and reveal why league insiders see the race very differently.
That leading rival, according to Front Office Sports‘ survey of NBA executives, is the Golden State Warriors. Multiple Western Conference executives told the outlet they expect James to sign there over Cleveland for his 24th pro season, even with prediction markets and podcaster Bill Simmons treating a Cavaliers return as a “done deal.” One league source still expects Cleveland, but the consensus among those polled is that James lands with one of the two.
“I would be stunned if he picked a team that wasn’t Golden State or Cleveland,” one executive said, as quoted by Front Office Sports.
LeBron James’ Fit With Warriors Outweighs Cavaliers Nostalgia
The basketball case for Golden State centers on Stephen Curry. Executives view James alongside Curry as a cleaner fit than slotting back in with Cleveland’s current core of James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Proximity to James’ family in Los Angeles factors in too, according to one exec who spoke to the outlet.
James is also weighing the Miami Heat, Philadelphia 76ers, Minnesota Timberwolves and Denver Nuggets, though the field has narrowed to Golden State and Cleveland in the views of most executives polled.
James and Curry have combined for eight championships and met four times in the Finals, most memorably in 2016, when James rallied Cleveland from a 3-1 deficit to beat Curry’s Warriors, still the only such comeback in Finals history.
“You can’t call this ring-chasing,” one executive told FOS. “LeBron is 41 and Steph is 38. This is an attempt to see if the old guard can get one last title.”
Bronny Adds Wrinkle To LeBron Free Agency
Complicating matters is Bronny James. The 21-year-old just wrapped his second Lakers season, and his $2.2 million salary for next year was guaranteed on June 29, the day before his father’s split from Los Angeles became public. Multiple front offices in the sweepstakes have already discussed trading for Bronny if his father signs there.
“We wouldn’t be doing our jobs if we didn’t discuss it,” one executive said. Whether the elder James would want a trade for his son remains unclear.
The younger James’ rookie-scale contract and clear on-court improvement give the Lakers reason to hang onto him as the roster gets younger and cheaper around Dončić. Still, if the elder James wants to keep playing alongside his son, that preference could scramble whatever front office ends up negotiating with him.
James informed the Lakers through agent Rich Paul that he would not return, ending an eight-year run that included a 2020 championship won inside the NBA’s “bubble” during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
Paul later said the pursuit of “complete happiness” drove the decision, as quoted by Yahoo Sports. The move also freed roughly $52.6 million in cap space the Lakers plan to redirect into a rebuild around Dončić and Austin Reaves.
James enters free agency at 41 as a four-time MVP and 22-time All-Star still productive enough to headline a market that’s otherwise sorted itself out. He’s already played two stints in Cleveland and four years in Miami, making Golden State one contender whose jersey he has never worn. No final decision had been announced as of Monday, July 13.
New NBA Exec Survey: LeBron James Will Snub Hometown Cavaliers For One Team