NBA Insider Shares Why Luka Doncic Will Win MVP This Season

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NBA basketball player for the Los Angeles Lakers, Slovenia's Luka Doncic poses with fans during a "Stay in Play" event organised by the Luka Doncic Foundation to help young players, in Rome on June 26, 2026. Doncic is part of the ownership group of a new basketball club in Rome. The group bought the Italian team Vanoli Cremona and moved it to Rome, bringing top-level basketball back to the capital. (Photo by Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP via Getty Images)

The pressure on Luka Doncic may be stronger than ever to contend leading the Los Angeles Lakers with a flawed roster. NBA fans are still scratching their heads over the Lakers willingly choosing to let five rotation players leave in free agency for questionable replacements. Names like Walker Kessler and Quentin Grimes will have to deliver for the Lakers roster to contend in the loaded Western Conference.

However, top ESPN insider Tim MacMahon claims he believes this could help Luka get his first ever MVP Award:

“I think it’s pretty well set up for Luka to potentially win his first. And a narrative where the expectations for the Lakers are as low as they’ve been since LeBron arrived.

If they win 53 games, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility if Luka stays healthy. You don’t wonder if he’s going to have numbers. If the guy plays, he’ll put up MVP numbers. If they win 53 games and he’s putting up those kind of numbers, I think he’s going to have a hell of a case.”

MacMahon believes the narrative of low expectations for team success could help Doncic. Stats will always back up Luka, but he could be a more viable candidate if the Lakers get to 50+ wins with him having a great season. Doncic thriving as the franchise superstar after losing LeBron James could finally give him an MVP win.

Why Has Luka Doncic Never Won MVP?

Luka is widely considered to be the best player in the league today to never win an MVP Award. Even if someone ranks Victor Wembanyama over Doncic, the latter has been in the league far longer as a consistent top five player each season.

Bad luck has held Luka back from contending for the MVP since his stats are usually good enough. Names like Nikola Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander have just had better all-around seasons to win multiple times each over Doncic.

The 2023-2024 season was the closest Luka has come with a third-place finish behind Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander. Doncic led the Dallas Mavericks to the NBA Finals to truly validate his season, but he ended the year without either the title or the MVP Award.

Luka Doncic Could Benefit From Voter Fatigue

Another interesting variable in Luka’s favor for the MVP race involves voter fatigue when the NBA voters want to see someone new win. Giannis Antetokounmpo experienced this once he won two MVP Awards and fell out of the favored list in following seasons.

Even the greatest players of all time, like LeBron and Michael Jordan, believe they missed out on more MVPs due to this. Gilgeous-Alexander may run into this issue, especially after his Oklahoma City Thunder got eliminated last postseason to end their dynasty dreams.

Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are now at the stage where they must do more than the other candidates to win the Award. Doncic must hope that Austin Reaves and Kessler give him enough health to win. Outside of that and potential health woes, nothing else can hold Luka back from MVP contention based on his skill and results.

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NBA Insider Shares Why Luka Doncic Will Win MVP This Season

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