The Los Angeles Lakers, on the surface, have the star power of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves to win multiple playoff rounds, but the chances of them winning four straight and clinching the Finals remain a tall task.
Despite the star trio, as it relates to the Lakers’ title odds, they have an uphill battle in the Western Conference. Even though Doncic and James claimed the team still has a chance of hoisting the Larry O’Brien trophy, they only have a 2% chance to win the Finals, according to the prediction market, Polymarket.
Additionally, in a post on X, Polymarket Sports wrote that there is a higher chance of Jesus Christ returning than the Lakers winning the Finals.
“You have a better chance of seeing Jesus Christ return this year than seeing the Lakers win the NBA Finals,” the company said in the post.
According to the prediction market, the Lakers have the 10th-highest odds to win the championship, behind other top teams in the West like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets, San Antonio Spurs, Houston Rockets, and Minnesota Timberwolves, as well as some other contenders in the Eastern Conference.
Lakers Title Odds At The All-Star Break
Just by looking at the raw statistics, Los Angeles lags behind in a number of areas that are typical signs of a team hoping to compete for a title. At the time of the All-Star break, they rank 16th in net rating, 11th in offensive rating, and 23rd in defensive rating.
Normally, teams ranking in the top ten in each category are seen as top championship contenders, and the Lakers have failed to reach that mark in each.
With a record of 33-21, they also haven’t hit the ‘40-20 rule’ laid out by legendary coach and 11-time champion Phil Jackson, who claimed only teams reaching 40 wins before hitting 20 losses have a chance to win the Finals.
Additionally, while the Lakers have a star-studded trio on offense with Doncic, James, and Reaves, the three have only played 10 games together this season, as each has dealt with multiple injuries through the first two-thirds of the year. They have gone 7-3 in those games, but having each on the court together in less than a fifth of their contests this year isn’t a strong sign for potential playoff chemistry, or overall health as they head into the most important stretch of the regular season.
The rest of the Lakers’ roster also fails to compete with the supporting cast of other top teams, as there have been major questions about center Deandre Ayton, wings Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Dalton Knecht, and guards of Marcus Smart and Luke Kennard.
Los Angeles is by no means a below-average team, as seen with their record, but with the injury concerns, depth, and defensive issues plaguing head coach JJ Redick’s team all season, that’s why they find themselves with only a 2% chance to win the Finals this year.
Luka Doncic And LeBron James Thoughts On Lakers Title Chances
Despite what the numbers may show, that doesn’t mean the Lakers’ stars don’t think they are out of reach of winning four straight playoff rounds.
Speaking over the All-Star break with NBA insider Chris Haynes, the team’s new franchise star, Doncic, offered up his true thoughts on the Lakers’ title odds.
Luka Doncic on the Lakers’ title hopes 🗣️
(via @ChrisBHaynes)
“Obviously, we’re trying to win the championship. I think we can do it. We have the team for it,” he said. “Coming back from All-Star, I think everybody’s healthy. That’ll be a good test for us.”
As for James, whose future with the team is still up in the air, as he has yet to address his plans as he enters free agency this summer, he expressed a bit more concern for Los Angeles heading into the final two months of the regular season.
“We’re playing good ball at times. The number-one thing for us is health,” James said on his Mind The Game podcast with Steve Nash. “We finally got healthy with AR coming back, and then Luka goes down with the hamstring. So, that is gonna be the most important for our team.”
As was previously mentioned, James added that having more time on the court with the star trio is important if they have any shot of making a postseason run. He mentioned the numerous injuries they’d dealt with so far this year, and if those continue, any shot at winning the Finals can be thrown out the window.
“It’s kind of been like that for the last few years with our team, like, we haven’t been set up to the point where we have a lot of room for error,” he added. “(When) Luka goes down, (expletive) it’s Luka…Luka in the MVP race right now…no one’s gonna replace that…It’s about how can we get enough minutes and chemistry on the floor and reps.”
As the Lakers ramp back up after the All-Star break, they have an uphill battle to even be a top-four seed and clinch home court advantage, let alone winning the NBA Finals.
Lakers Title Odds Get ‘Miracle’ Comparison Amid Luka, LeBron Comments