Pro Football Focus has released their ranking of all 32 presumed starters across the league. There are a few head turners but none more than the ordering their fourth tier. ‘Tier 4: Young players with a wide range of potential outcomes’ includes five of the six first round quarterbacks from the historic 2024 NFL Draft., with Jayden Daniels excluded.
Atlanta Falcons’ quarterback Michael Penix Jr. ranks behind all five of the six signal callers, but, surprisingly, the one quarterback he ranks ahead of is the first overall pick from the class. Penix is ranked 23rd in the league, Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears comes in one below at 24.
As far as Penix is concerned, PFF is impressed with him throughout an admittedly small sample size.
“Penix’s NFL sample size is small but promising,” the analytics website published. “Across 114 dropbacks, he earned an 87.9 overall grade — a number inflated by a dominant Week 18 performance that included seven big-time throws and a 95.6 game grade.”
However, the website remains tentative on the trajectory of Atlanta’s front man, citing lingering questions on the quarterback’s scouting report.
“He’s clearly capable of that level of play, but the week prior told a different story, as he struggled with accuracy and finished with a 54.3 passing grade,” PFF continued. “Accuracy and performance under pressure were question marks coming out of college. If he can improve in those areas, his ranking will rise in a hurry.”
The Knocks On Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams was one of three quarterbacks from the class who started all 17 of their teams 2024 games. Joined by Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders, who came in at number six in the league, and Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos, who headlined tier four of the list.
Given the circumstances, it’s hard to comprehend how the first overall pick finished so low, but PFF backed their analysis with the numbers.
“Touted as a generational talent by many, Williams underwhelmed as a rookie, earning just a 67.6 overall grade and posting only five single-game grades above 70.0,” PFF wrote. “The talent is undeniable, but his NFL success will hinge on learning to find open targets and avoiding the habit of running himself into pressure.”
Penix Ranked Below A Player Who Hasn’t Played A Snap
While his ranking above Caleb Williams is a feather in the cap, Penix finished just below Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback J.J McCarthy, who is yet to play an NFL snap.
“I’m leaning on my personal evaluation here, as I had McCarthy as the top quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft,” the writer admitted. “We didn’t get to see him as a rookie, but his 2023 season at Michigan — where he earned a 92.2 PFF grade and a 93.4 passing grade — highlighted everything you want in a young passer.”
Hinging a college evaluation on a year two NFL quarterback raises some questions on the legitimacy of the list, but it is consistent with the reasoning behind many of the placements in the young quarterback tier. Even this years number one pick, Cam Ward, made his way into this echelon of quarterbacks, who out ranked NFL vets like Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, and Joe Flacco.
“If he’s fully healthy in 2025, and considering what Sam Darnold managed in this offense, McCarthy is set up to succeed,” the website concluded.
PFF Stunningly Ranks Falcons’ QB Above Draft Class Rival