He’s 32 and supposed to be nearing the end of the line for an NFL running back, but two hidden statistics show Derrick Henry’s actually set for his best year with the Baltimore Ravens, starting with a big outing against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1.
Both stats concern changes to the Ravens’ offense made by new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle. His decision to put franchise quarterback Lamar Jackson under center more often is good news for Henry, according to Zachary Pereles of CBS Sports.
Pereles noted the two-time rushing champion “actually averaged more yards per carry out of the shotgun (5.3 compared to 5.1), but he had a higher explosive run rate (10.8% to 8.0%) when the quarterback was under center.”
Henry’s ability to manufacture big plays on the ground within an under-center scheme is why Pereles has the veteran going for “OVER 80 rushing yards” against a tough Colts’ defense in the Ravens’ 2026 season-opener at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, September 13.
A fresh Henry’s also expected to deliver splash plays by Ravens.com Staff Writer Clifton Brown. He points out Henry “hasn’t been tackled in a game since last season. Give Henry 20 carries or more on Sunday, and there’s a good chance he’ll break a long one.”
Breaking long runs is a signature of Henry’s game, but the quarterback being under center isn’t the only reason the Ravens’ workhorse can dominate against the Colts and beyond.
Derrick Henry Can Benefit Most from New Offense
The Ravens are supposed to be making a mistake by keeping faith with Henry in the winter of his career. That’s how things appear on the surface, and a couple of underlying metrics actually support this negative view.
What those numbers don’t take into account is how transformative Doyle’s playbook can be for Henry. Especially when the play-caller favors one particular scheme.
Henry remains dominant running the kind of outside-zone plays Doyle used a lot with the Chicago Bears in 2025. That’s according to ESPN’s Mina Kimes, who spelled out how “last year he averaged six yards a carry rushing running outside zone using FTN fantasy tracking data, which was the best in the NFL. He was the second best running from under center.”
Too many numbers that matter are adding up to Henry being the biggest beneficiary of the Doyle offense. It’s bad news for the Colts, who face an ongoing problem containing Jackson.
Ravens Already Have Key Edge Over Colts
The Ravens have a key edge over the Colts, thanks to Jackson’s ownership of Indy defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. He was a familiar opponent when he called defenses for AFC North rivals the Cincinnati Bengals, but Jackson shredded those units by “throwing 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions, while averaging 258.5 passing yards” in his previous four meetings with Anarumo, per Keim’s colleague Jamison Hensley.
Jackson’s already predicted to reach new heights on Doyle’s watch. Replicating his recent heroics against Anarumo-coached defenses is a great way for Jackson to start.
His task will be easier if Henry lives up to the billing in an offense tailored to keeping him at the top of his position for a little longer.
Hidden Stats Show Derrick Henry Set for Best Year With Ravens