If Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson shocked the world and decided he didn’t want to play football anymore, the numbers tell us it would already be almost impossible to keep him out of the Pro Football Hall of Fame after just 7 seasons.
According to the Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm), Jackson’s career rating of 81.40 puts him at No. 26 in NFL history for his position. It already puts him ahead of seven Pro Football Hall of Fame quarterback; a list that includes Warren Moon (71.30), Joe Namath (70.00), Troy Aikman (64.28) and Jim Kelly (59.10).
From PFR: “The Pro Football Reference Hall of Fame Monitor (HOFm) is a metric designed to estimate a player’s chances of making the Pro Football Hall of Fame using AV, Pro Bowls, All-Pros, championships, and various stat milestones.”
While the HOFm might be the most compelling piece of analytics we can find that shows Jackson is already a Hall of Famer, there’s another even more compelling stat that seems to show he’s an absolute lock to wind up in Canton, and almost certainly in his first year of eligibility.
Multiple MVP Winners All Household Names
The stat that makes Jackson an absolute lock for the Hall of Fame above all others is that he’s one of just 11 players in football history to win multiple NFL Most Valuable Player Awards.
Of those 11 players, 7 are already in the Hall of Fame. Of those not yet in the Hall of Fame, 3-time MVP and 7-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, is the next one eligible, in 2028.
There are three active quarterbacks who have won multiple MVPs in Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers (4), Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes (2) and Jackson, a 2-time winner who is already the NFL’s career leading rusher for quarterbacks with 6,173 rushing yard. He’s also the only quarterback in NFL history with multiple 1,000 yard rushing seasons.
Only one non-quarterback has ever won multiple MVPs — Cleveland Browns running back Jim Brown played 9 seasons from 1957 to 1965 and won 3 times.
One Thing Still Missing From Jackson’s Career
While Jackson’s greatness is no longer something that’s up for debate, the No. 32 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft and 2016 Heisman Trophy winner has a career missing one very important thing — a Super Bowl win.
Moving forward in his career, the Super Bowl narrative is essentially the only one that still exists around Jackson, who has led the Ravens to the NFL playoffs in 6 of his 7 seasons and signed a 5-year, $260 million contract before the 2023 season.
With Jackson, the Ravens have advanced to the AFC Championship Game just once, when they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at home following the 2023 season.
To make it clear, winning a Super Bowl isn’t a requirement for a Hall of Fame quarterback. Five quarterbacks from the Super Bowl era failed to win it all and still made it — Kelly, Moon, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino and Fran Tarkenton.
The 2 quarterbacks with the best case for making the Hall of Fame without a Super Bowl win who will be eligible soon are 2016 NFL MVP Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers.
Ravens $291 Million QB Lamar Jackson Called ‘Absolute Lock’ for NFL Honor