For ESPN analyst Bill Barnwell (and me personally), the Buffalo Bills‘ traveling to Florida to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars is the game of the week in the NFL’s Wild Card round.
In the closing months of the season, nobody has played better football than Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Additionally, the Jags’ defense finished the season as the best team against the run and one of the best teams at forcing turnovers.
Nearly every statistic, aside from the rushing offense, leans toward Jacksonville.
But reigning NFL MVP Josh Allen is no statistic.
And when it comes to the Jaguars’ defensive scheme, it plays right into Allen and the Bills’ hand.
“The Jaguars are a heavy zone coverage team, though, and Allen’s 71.7 QBR against zone this season is the second-best mark in the league,” Barnwell wrote. “The Jaguars have been a much better defense against teams that go lighter than against teams that use multiple tight ends, and the Bills are going to bring Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and Jackson Hawes onto the field to try to manipulate Jacksonville’s personnel and limit its exotic pressure looks.
“The Bills win in a shootout.”
Why Multiple Tight Ends And Zone Coverage Benefit The Bills
The NFL defensive game can be simplified into one word: pressure. If a defense can’t generate pressure, a defense can’t breathe. They need it like they need oxygen.
The Jaguars have great defensive ends, but they rely on the blitz to bring the quarterback down or, at the very least, make them uncomfortable.
Jacksonville has the fewest sacks of any team in the AFC playoff picture, with just 32 on the season.
They blitz on more than 25% of plays and like to keep the box light.
The Bills having three tight ends on the field at the same time throws a wrench into this plan.
First and foremost, the tight ends can throw a block before getting into their routes. Oftentimes, tight ends run “delayed” routes, which allows them to help in the protection before getting into their route.
Because of their alignment, tight ends often account for second-level blitzers, which allows the offensive line to sift through the defensive line.
Re-enter quarterback Josh Allen.
As one of the best in the league against zone coverage, Allen relies on having time in (or out) of the pocket to allow offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s plays to develop.
Blitzing takes players out of the coverage.
If the Jaguars are blitzing, the tight ends are picking it up, and the defense is in zone coverage… Allen will have the time to dissect the now undermanned defense.
The way I see it, the Jaguars have two options: blitz Allen and leave holes in the zone coverage, or don’t blitz Allen and give the quarterback an ample amount of time to analyze the zone coverage, which he is better than anyone in the NFL at doing.
Josh Allen Will Have To Be Superman To Overcome Jaguars Surging Defense