Public money is already flooding in on Caleb Williams, and sportsbooks are taking notice.
After a breakout second season, the Chicago quarterback has quickly become the most heavily bet player in the 2026-27 MVP market.
As FOX Sports noted, according to BetMGM insights, Williams is pulling in 11.8% of all tickets and 13.5% of the total handle, making him one of the biggest liabilities on the board despite sitting at +1400.
That surge comes after Williams threw for 3,942 yards, 27 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while leading the Chicago Bears to an NFC North title and their first playoff win in over a decade.
Add in seven game-winning drives, tied for the league lead, and it’s easy to see why bettors are buying in early.
Even media voices are echoing the hype.
“To me, Caleb Williams is the No. 1 preseason MVP, Josh Allen at No. 2,” said Colin Cowherd on The Herd. “A lot of it is… he’s more fun to watch and easier to vote for.”
Bears’ Caleb Williams Creates Major Sportsbook Liability
The combination of production, narrative and hype has created a perfect storm in the MVP market.
However, Williams isn’t the favorite.
Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes still sit ahead, but that hasn’t slowed bettors. If anything, the longer odds have made him even more appealing to the public.
That’s where sportsbooks get nervous.
When a high volume of bets and money lands on one player, it creates exposure. If Williams actually wins MVP, books could be forced into a sizable payout. That’s exactly why he’s being labeled a “liability”, not because he’s the most likely winner, but because so many bettors are backing him.
The appeal is obvious. He’s coming off a playoff breakthrough, plays in a high-powered offense under Ben Johnson, and delivers the kind of late-game moments that stick with voters. MVP betting markets often follow storylines just as much as stats, and right now, Williams has both.
Strong Case Meets Historical Resistance
Still, history isn’t exactly on his side.
No quarterback has ever won MVP in their third NFL season, a trend that directly works against Williams heading into 2026. On top of that, Chicago faces one of the toughest schedules in the league after finishing first in the division, adding another layer of difficulty.
Even so, supporters believe those challenges could actually strengthen his case.
“If there is anybody who is ready for the spotlight, it is my guy… he’s the Ice Man,” said Seth Rollins on Good Morning Football. “Every week, comeback after comeback… this franchise has gone from the worst in the division to kings, and it’s all because of him.”
That mix of clutch performances, a rising team, and a quarterback stepping into superstardom is exactly what drives MVP campaigns.
Whether he overcomes the historical trend or not, one thing is clear: bettors are all in, and it’s only May.
For sportsbooks, that makes Caleb Williams one of the most dangerous names on the board heading into the 2026 season.
For Bears fans, it only adds to the excitement as the team looks to build on its first season under Ben Johnson.
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