The Detroit Lions are the most likely team to go from last place the year prior to first place in 2026. Brad Gagnon of Bleacher Report ranked the eight last-place teams by the likelihood of them winning the division. The Lions were the surefire top choice.
The reason that Gagnon states is clear. The team won the division in 2023 and 2024, so they could easily get right back to the top. However, on the flip side, the team could have peaked in those years. Beyond that, because of the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, and Chicago Bears, it will be one of the hardest divisions to win.
Still, when looking at the other teams that finished in last place, it is clear that the Lions have the highest potential ceiling.
The Detroit Lions Are Most Likely Last-to-First Team in NFL
GettyDetroit Lions HC Dan Campbell.
The Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, Las Vegas Raiders, and Cleveland Browns were the bottom three teams in this ranking.
Arizona not only has a three-man competition at quarterback, they are in a division with arguably the top three teams in the NFC. They have to overcome the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, and Seattle Seahawks, who won the Super Bowl.
The Jets are in a division with Josh Allen and Drake Maye. They are going into the year with Geno Smith, making it tough to see them at the top.
The Raiders might surprise people if Fernando Mendoza plays well. However, he is expected to sit early. Beyond that, the Raiders are in a division with the Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Denver Broncos.
The Browns somehow came in fifth despite having Shedeur Sanders competing with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. Being in a division with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and the defending AFC North champion Steelers makes them highly unlikely to finish above their standing last year.
The next three teams are the potential surprises with second-year quarterbacks.
Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans came in fourth. Jaxson Dart and the New York Giants came in third. Then, Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints finished second. All of them have chances that their young draft pick takes the huge step that Drake Maye did last year.
Still, because those teams are betting on something we have not seen, the Lions are the most established last-place team. They went 9-8 last year. That is why they get the nod.
Lions Can Make a Real Run at the Division
The Lions also had a strong offseason and hope to come into the year with a better roster. They shuffled the offensive line, and it should be stronger. They also will lean on Jahmyr Gibbs more often. Lastly, they believe they upgraded in offensive playcalling. If that all comes together, they will jump right back into first place.
The last reason is that the Lions have one of the easiest schedules in the NFL. With a last-place schedule, they get to play a lot of the teams that were just ripped apart. Meanwhile, their division rivals get much tougher draws.
Analyst Predicts Massive Turnaround for Lions