The Green Bay Packers have searched for a reliable offensive identity these first two weeks of the season.
A matchup trend against the Atlanta Falcons could push Matt LaFleur toward an answer, at least just for Thursday night.
Peter Bukowski pointed out on X that Green Bay has faced light boxes on only 32.8% of its offensive snaps this season, the third-lowest rate in the NFL, according to SumerSports. Atlanta, meanwhile, has played light boxes at a 46.2% rate.
The #Falcons play light boxes at a 46.2% rate. Matt LaFleur is going to want to run the rock.
That’s good news for an offense that has had trouble getting its ground game moving. The Packers have rushed for 129 yards on 39 attempts through two games, an average of 3.3 yards per carry, via the team’s official statistics.
Atlanta has been willing to keep fewer defenders near the line of scrimmage, which could give LaFleur moments to test that structure early and often.
Falcons’ Light Boxes Could Give Packers a Needed Opening
A light box generally means the defense is committing fewer bodies near the line of scrimmage, often in an effort to devote more resources to coverage and limit explosive passes.
SumerSports has explained the broader trade-off in modern defensive football, that lighter boxes can protect against the pass, but they can also force a defense to defend the run with fewer numbers.
That sounds inviting for Green Bay.
The Packers haven’t produced a rushing touchdown through two games, and MarShawn Lloyd leads the team with 57 yards on 19 carries. Chris Brooks has added 40 yards on 11 attempts, while Kaleb Johnson has 32 yards on eight carries.
The catch is that Atlanta has defended the run extremely well despite its willingness to play lighter. NFL.com lists the Falcons as allowing only 126 rushing yards on 43 attempts through two games, a 2.9-yard average, with no rushing touchdowns surrendered.
So, Atlanta is affording offenses a numerical invitation to run and still winning enough of those snaps to discourage them.
Green Bay has to prove it can punish that approach.
Establishing something on the ground would also help Jordan Love after a bruising start to the season. He has already been sacked seven times, and Green Bay’s offensive line has more moving parts following injuries in Week 2.
Packers’ Injured Offensive Line Headlines the Game
Green Bay will be without starting left guard Aaron Banks and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele against Atlanta, per the Packers’ final injury report.
Banks left the overtime win over the New York Jets with knee and toe injuries, while Bako-Bewele is out with a knee injury. Anthony Belton, who replaced Bako-Bewele, was a full participant Wednesday and carries no game designation.
That could make a committed run plan harder to execute, especially against an Atlanta front that has held its first two opponents below 3 yards per carry. Regardless, the matchup might have to work to keep pressure off the protection unit and prevent the Falcons from dictating obvious passing situations.
Green Bay’s current rushing rotation has yet to produce a breakout runs. Lloyd’s longest run is 12 yards, Brooks’ is 14 and Johnson’s is 12. The Packers also have only seven rushing first downs.
Assuming Atlanta continues putting light boxes on the field at one of the NFL’s higher rates, Green Bay should have chances to create favorable numbers before the snap.
The Packers still have to block them.
Stabilizing an offense that has scored 42 points through two games, the Packers determination in the run game could decide whether LaFleur can finally execute the balanced attack Green Bay has been missing.
Packers Get Clear Opening From Atlanta Falcons’ Trend