Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has been a reliable force for the team since he entered the NFL in 2020. The former second-round pick played all 17 games in 2025, finishing with 1,585 rushing yards on 323 carries.
That is quite the workload for any running back, let alone someone who has been in the NFL for six seasons. The position is known for rapid drops in production and Colts fans are hoping Taylor can buck that trend.
A recent ESPN article looked at the best bets for every NFL team this season. The “best bet” for the Colts will have fans worried.
Analyst Shares Concerning Jonathan Taylor Prediction
ESPN’s Ben Solak declared a great bet is to take the under on Taylor’s season rushing total of 1,249.5 yards.
“Taylor’s huge start to the season slowed tremendously once Jones got hurt,” Solak wrote. “Taylor has back-to-back seasons with at least 1,400 yards, but that’s also back-to-back seasons of over 300 carries. With the Colts’ continued shuffling along the offensive line and a defense that likely won’t get many stops, I’m worried about Taylor reaching this volume.”
There are two concerning parts of that take. The first has to do with the serious volume Taylor has had the past two seasons. Going over 300 carries in a season takes a toll on the body. Doing so in back-to-back seasons only compounds the damage.
The other concern is the entire final sentence. Solak predicts the line will not be consistent and the defense won’t be able to get many stops. This means more focus on the passing game and fewer carries for Taylor, but it also means a rough year for the Colts as a whole. Solak also noted in the article that he sees the Colts as “a tough horse to back” in terms of projecting a strong season.
Colts Seeking Stability in 2026
The 2025 season seemed to be a magical one until Daniel Jones went down with an Achilles injury. The fact the Colts signed Philip Rivers off the couch showed how desperate the organization was to salvage the great start.
As Solak notes, Taylor’s production was impacted as soon as Jones went down last season. The team ended the season on a seven-game losing streak and Taylor failed to eclipse 87 rushing yards in a game during that span.
Jones staying healthy is the first key to success this year. Anthony Richardson is officially the backup and seems to be in a good place, but is still unproven and unpredictable on the field.
A healthy Jones adds a threat in the passing game and opens up the running game for Taylor, and vice versa. That remains true even if the line has some shuffling taking place this season.
1,250 rushing yards is not an insurmountable total for Taylor. It may just not be a wise bet to take the over given the unknowns surrounding the Colts heading into the season.
Jonathan Taylor Predicted to Regress in 2026