The Kansas City Chiefs have to win out over the last month of the NFL season just to raise their playoff odds to barely above 50 percent and don’t control their postseason destiny for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Kansas City’s unfamiliar position is primarily the result of what has been a relatively familiar problem over the past few seasons, namely that the team is overly-reliant on Mahomes and one of the league’s most pass-happy offenses in lieu of an even marginal running game.
Ben Solak of ESPN authored a deep dive into this issue on Wednesday, December 10, noting along the way perhaps the biggest mistake of the Chiefs’ past few seasons — letting one of the NFL’s top running backs slip away ahead of the trade deadline due to quibbling over a third-round/fourth-round draft price.
“If the reports are true that general manager Brett Veach could have had [New York] Jets running back Breece Hall for a third-round pick at the deadline this year and passed, that was a serious misstep,” Solak wrote.
Chiefs’ Have Run-Game Personnel, Scheme Issues That Breece Hall Can Address
GettyRunning back Breece Hall of the New York Jets.
Hall is in the final year of his rookie contract and will be a free agent next March. He is projected to land a new four-year deal in the range of $42 million overall.
The Jets top RB is having a career year, posting 877 rushing yards and three TDs to go along with 30 receptions for 309 yards and one score through 13 games played.
Kansas City could have desperately used his type of production, given that it would empower the team to run the football in more advantageous sets with Mahomes under center and force opposing defenses to play more run looks that the Chiefs could then take advantage of through play action.
“The 2025 Chiefs have the lowest explosive rush rate on RB carries among all seasons since 2000 (2.6%). The 2024 Chiefs were third lowest (2.8%). [Kareem] Hunt and Isiah Pacheco (post-injury) break tackles for sure, but they don’t run away from anyone,” Solak wrote.
“The Chiefs average 3.6 yards per run from the [shotgun formation] (30th) and 1.7 yards before contact per rush (29th),” Solak continued, noting that Kansas City runs out of shotgun more than essentially any team in the league. “This is not worthy of a defense’s respect. The Chiefs cannot force safeties closer to the line of scrimmage or lure heavier defensive personnel onto the field.”
Chiefs Face Salary Cap Issues That Will Complicate Additions in Free Agency
GettyKansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid.
Kansas City could not have fixed the problem entirely mid-season, but adding Hall and then extending him before allowing a free-agent bidding war to ensue would have been a nice step forward.
The Chiefs’ offensive line, when healthy, is good enough to pave the way for an average-to-quality rush attack. However, an at least moderate shift in offensive philosophy and better blocking/pass-catching tight end and wide receiver combinations are required, which — like the running back position — is a personnel issue.
Kansas City has been to seven consecutive AFC championship games, five Super Bowls and has won three rings. The front office is one of the best in the league, but no organization operates mistake-free.
The Chiefs have proven equipped to adapt and remain competitive, and Solak stressed that the regression in 2025 does not signal the end of a dynasty, but more of a blip on the radar of a team that should re-ascend next season.
That said, Kansas City faces a nearly $43 million salary cap deficit in 2026, which is going to mean tough cuts across the roster and a limited ability to add high-level personnel via free agency.
Chiefs Can Fix ‘Serious Misstep’ by Adding Projected $42 Million Playmaker