There was a lot of excitement when the Las Vegas Raiders traded for Geno Smith last offseason, but that excitement quickly faded. He struggled to make plays for the team and led the NFL with 17 interceptions.
The Raiders were the worst team in the league this season, which led to them getting the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. That pick will likely be used to select a quarterback. That means Smith could be on his way out.
The Raiders signed him to a two-year contract extension last offseason, but they only get saddled with an $18.5 million dead cap hit if they cut him. Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report listed the most likely salary cap casualties for the Raiders this offseason, and Smith was atop the list.
“The Pete Carroll era was short-lived in Las Vegas,” Ballentine wrote. “That likely means the Geno Smith era won’t last much longer. The Raiders earned the No. 1 pick and will likely have Fernando Mendoza on the roster as a result. That would make Smith a $26.5 million mentor for their new rookie quarterback.
“Given that the coach Smith was connected with is now gone, that isn’t likely to be a number the Raiders are willing to pay. It makes more sense at this point to let Smith go find employment elsewhere and utilize the $8 million in savings to build their free agent war chest even bigger.”
Smith Will Likely Have Answer Before March
The Raiders don’t have to make a decision on Smith immediately. They should have a chance to take a closer look at the quarterbacks in the draft class before pulling the trigger on cutting Smith.
They will also look at trade options if there are any interested teams. The Raiders do need to make a decision before the start of the new league year in March, according to CBS Sports’ Joel Corry.
“The Raiders are expected to select Indiana University Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza after securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft because of a 3-14 record,” Corry wrote. “It’s hard to imagine Smith having a trade market given his disappointing season. Expect a resolution with Smith prior to the third day of the 2026 league year on March 13 when the remaining $8 million of the $26.5 million 2026 base salary becomes fully guaranteed.”
Alex Cappa Another Likely Cap Casualty
Smith isn’t the only player who is a possible cap casualty. Ballentine also sees offensive lineman Alex Cappa as someone who is on the chopping block.
“The Raiders aren’t in a position where they have to free up cap space to become compliant,” Ballentine wrote. “They just have to make sure they are spending the most efficient way possible. That would mean clearing $5 million of Alex Cappa’s $6 million cap hit.
“Cappa started at center for the Raiders this season and was graded 35th of the 37 qualifying centers with PFF. Jackson Powers-Johnson could always slide over to the pivot or the Raiders will have enough money to upgrade the position on the open market. Either way, there isn’t much reason to keep Cappa around at that number.”
Raiders QB Geno Smith Hit With Dreaded Label Ahead of NFL Offseason