There were high hopes for the Las Vegas Raiders last season when they acquired Geno Smith. He was coming off three straight strong seasons with the Seattle Seahawks and was widely viewed as a massive upgrade at quarterback.
Instead, he fell back to earth and had an ugly season, leading the NFL with 17 interceptions. However, that might not tell the whole story. While Smith did play poorly, the Raiders didn’t do him any favors. The offensive line was atrocious, and the playcalling was a disaster.
He also may have been the victim of something that isn’t talked about much: Bad luck. According to Mark Chichester of Pro Football Focus, not all of Smith’s interceptions were necessarily his fault.
“The ugliest interception total in football during the 2025 season was largely driven by variance. Smith recorded 18 turnover-worthy throws — hardly an extreme figure relative to his volume — but 12 of them became interceptions, producing a 66.7% conversion rate that sat nearly 18 percentage points above the league average,” Chichester wrote.
“The bad luck didn’t stop there. Smith also threw five interceptions on non-turnover-worthy plays, well above the roughly 3.4 expected based on league-average rates. Altogether, his 17-interception season paints a far harsher picture than the underlying process suggests. Under league-average interception luck, Smith’s season profiles far more like a 12- or 13-interception campaign than the 17 interceptions attached to his name in the official record.”
Smith’s Problems Went Beyond Interceptions
Smith’s numbers would’ve looked better if some of those interceptions had been dropped, and perhaps the perception of his 2025 season would’ve been different. That doesn’t mean he was good last season.
He took many unnecessary sacks, got into it with fans and just wasn’t a consistent leader for the team. That doesn’t mean Smith isn’t a good player, but he clearly wasn’t what the Raiders needed last season.
Smith Hoping to Turn Things Around With Jets
Smith is set to play for the New York Jets this season, which is the team that drafted him. He didn’t play well during his first stint with the franchise, but he’s hoping for a Hollywood ending with the team.
“Yeah, I mean, that would be like a story in a movie, right?” Smith said of returning the Jets to prominence, via the Associated Press. “It’s kind of like one of those superhero movies, but my life is based on reality. We’ve got to focus on getting better every single day.”
Similar to the Raiders last season, the Jets are a mess. They’re more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff spot, but regardless of that, Smith is excited to get the chance to redeem himself from his previous stint in New York.
“Coming in for physicals and just walking down the hall again — it was the very first hall I walked down when I got drafted — all those feelings come back,” Smith said. “Just great feelings, great memories, seeing my mom in the locker room, and I started just thinking about my first time in the NFL, first time here. Immediately, it clicked right back in: I’ve got to get to work. I just got right back to that.”
PFF Makes Eye-Opening Excuse for Geno Smith’s Rough Raiders Season