The Miami Dolphins and New York Jets both find themselves in unfortunate spots in the AFC East Division.
The Buffalo Bills are led by superstar quarterback Josh Allen, who might be the best football player on the planet. The New England Patriots just went to the Super Bowl and feature rising star QB Drake Maye.
Given that those teams also have a lot of other talent, and are considered far and away the two best teams in the AFC East, the Dolphins and the Jets are just trying to hang on for dear life.
It sets up a potentially tricky 2026 NFL season for both teams. They’ll be hoping to push for a surprise playoff berth, of course. But there’s also a chance the hopes of that dwindle quickly.
The Dolphins brought in a new quarterback who could have long-term impact, Malik Willis, while the Jets just have Geno Smith holding down the fort until they can find someone better.
Miami has less experience at a number of key positions than New York, which could matter, too.
All of this is notable because The Ringer’s Anthony Dabbundo just published his “best futures bets” for each team in the NFL heading into the new season.
And for the Dolphins? He goes with having the Dolphins get more wins than the Jets, which he got plus-210 odds on.
Why Dolphins Over Jets
It seems like a smart-money play, given that the plus odds mean the sportsbooks think it’s unlikely to happen.
“The Dolphins are not trying to win this year,” Dabbundo writes. “That’s clear from the front office, the cap, and their roster management. Plus, their schedule is absolutely brutal, the defense is incredibly young, and most of the team’s highest-paid players this season are not on the roster anymore. All of that said, there’s usually little value in betting on a team that’s already been counted out. In fact, the market is often overconfident in projecting just how bad some of the worst teams in the league will be. So it’s worth at least considering a scenario in which Miami will outperform expectations.”
Miami has the potential to put together a potent rushing attack with Willis and De’Von Achane, and while it might not mean the playoffs, it could mean some notable wins.
“Quarterback Malik Willis is in a prove-it situation, he’s playing behind a competent offensive line, and he’s passing to De’Von Achane, who is one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL,” Dabbundo writes. “Sure, Miami’s receiver room ranks 32nd out of 32 teams in talent, but the Dolphins’ ability to unleash Willis as a runner could give their offense its floor.”
Dolphins Vs. Jets Schedule
To come through on a wager like this often requires playing well against the other team in direct competition.
The Dolphins first play the Jets on the road in Week 7, Oct. 25.
They then host the Jets in Week 12, Nov. 29, just after Thanksgiving.
If Miami can win those games, they’ll have a chance at a better season than the Jets, even if it’s a bit rough in the bottom half of the AFC East.
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