The Minnesota Vikings are primed to land a safety with the No. 18 pick, but it may not be the one fans are expecting.
While Oregon safety Dillon Thieneman has been mocked to the Vikings more than any other player, NFL Draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah thinks there is a world where Ohio State star safety Caleb Downs could fall to Minnesota’s pick.
“The ceiling for him would be No. 5,” said Jeremiah on the Joel Klatt Show regarding Downs, who is one of the best prospects in the 2026 NFL Draft.
“I’ve been shocked with some safeties in the past that I’ve had huge grades on and watched them slip and slide,” Jeremiah continued. “I guess I would say Minnesota would be the worst case scenario, all hell broke loose spot.”
The Vikings Could Get Lucky If Caleb Downs Takes a Draft Day Tumble
Downs is largely regarded as the top safety in the draft, and is expected to be a top-10 pick, far from the reach of the Vikings. But as Jeremiah points out, safeties tend to slide back behind other players at premium positions. If Downs makes it past the Dallas Cowboys at No. 12 and the Baltimore Ravens at No. 13, the Vikings might have a chance at the blue-chip prospect.
Downs notched two interceptions and added a sack and a forced fumble last season with the Buckeyes. He’s been projected as high as a top-five selection thanks to his versatility and readiness to contribute right away, but also plays a position that generally is not valued as highly. If teams opt to go for premium positions like edge rusher or offensive tackle early, Downs could potentially end up still available at No. 18.
With four picks in the top-100 of the draft, Minnesota could always trade up as well, but if they are willing to be patient, there’s a small chance Downs could fall right into their lap.
The Vikings Are Letting Legendary Safety Harrison Smith Take His Time with Retirement Decision
Minnesota still hasn’t heard a final decision from safety Harrison Smith, who is debating retirement, but could still take a safety in round one regardless of his choice. The Vikings are allowing their Hall of Fame safety to take his time on whether or not to return for a 15th season.
“He knows how I feel about him, how we feel about him,” said Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell. “But we also want to be respectful and give him space to kind of continue to figure out what he wants to do.”
If Smith returns, Downs or Thieneman could learn for a year under one of the best to ever do it. But if Smith decides to hang the cleats up for good, the Vikings would have a promising replacement ready to roll. Still, it would be hard to replace ‘The Hitman’s’ production, who has 39 career interceptions and 21.5 sacks. Either way, Minnesota would be in good shape should either rookie fall to their pick towards the end of the first round.
Vikings Put On High Alert for an NFL Draft Day Slide of Coveted Star