If A.J. Brown makes his anticipated return for the New England Patriots against the New York Jets, how close will the star wide receiver be to his usual self?
An injury analyst’s research renders a hopeful answer — with a potential catch regarding Brown’s workload.
Tom Christ, a doctor of physical therapy and board-certified orthopedic clinical specialist, weighed in on Brown’s outlook on Oct. 17.
Expected to return to action this week. We saw him running straight and looked pretty good, I did not see any videos of lateral movement which is the more challenging issue after high ankles.
He’s had five weeks to rehab so there’s a good shot he’s regained
Christ expects Brown to return this week after the receiver spent five weeks rehabbing the high ankle sprain he suffered in the season opener.
Christ said the straight-line running he has seen from Brown “looked pretty good,” although he noted there has been less evidence of Brown testing the lateral movements that can be trickier following a high ankle sprain.
The most interesting part came from Christ’s research into players returning from the same injury.
His data set includes 51 wide receivers coming off high ankle sprains. Christ found “only mild performance decline” among those players, although their snap percentages fell by roughly 13%.
Injury Analyst Sees Reason for Brown Optimism
Brown has had roughly five weeks to regain the stability needed in his injured ankle, something Christ believes works in his favor.
The analyst also pointed toward the receiver’s playing style as a promising factor.
Brown has long leaned on his “size and strength versus quickness,” according to Christ, potentially reducing how dependent he is on the sudden lateral movement that can test a recovering high ankle sprain.
Brown’s first Patriots game lasted only 30 offensive snaps.
He suffered the injury during New England’s Week 1 matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, finishing his debut with three catches for 26 yards before leaving in the third quarter. The Patriots subsequently placed him on injured reserve, forcing him to miss the next four games.
Brown returned to practice Wednesday when New England opened his 21-day activation window.
“It felt pretty good. It’s one step at a time with me,” Brown said this week, while adding that his availability remained “still up in the air.”
Head coach Mike Vrabel said Friday that New England wanted to evaluate Brown’s conditioning and how his ankle responded before making its final decision.
The outlook improved Saturday morning.
NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported that Brown is likely to be activated from injured reserve in time to face the Jets, putting him on track to make his first appearance since Week 1.
Patriots Could Manage Brown’s Workload vs. Jets
Christ’s 13% figure may be the most relevant number to watch if Brown suits up Sunday.
A reduction in snaps would hardly mean Brown cannot make an impact. It could instead allow New England to pick its spots with the three-time All-Pro while continuing to lean on the receiving depth that shined recently during his absence.
Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels already noticed a difference simply from having Brown back at practice, saying the veteran brought some “fresh juice” to the offense. McDaniels also discussed how a receiver of Brown’s caliber can alter defensive coverage regardless of whether the ball comes his way.
New England also has reason to be cautious.
The Patriots face the Jets on Sunday before a short turnaround into a Thursday night matchup against the Chicago Bears. The team acknowledged that two games in five days could factor into its handling of Brown.
But assuming Brown follows the trend of the 51 receivers in Christ’s data set, the Patriots may be able to ease their top target back into action without seeing much of a drop-off when he’s actually on the field.
How Much Can A.J. Brown Handle If He Plays? Injury Analyst Weighs In