By all accounts, the New England Patriots were ahead of schedule when they made the Super Bowl in Mike Vrabel’s first season as the team’s head coach. Because of that, their Super Bowl run came with plenty of excuses, like the schedule they faced to get there.
Even with that, a defending conference champion usually gets more respect than the Patriots are getting from ESPN’s FPI. An analytical model designed to predict future outcomes, FPI, or Football Power Index, recently released its Super Bowl odds. There, the Patriots fell all the way to the middle of the pack in the NFL.
Per FPI, the Patriots have just a 2.7% chance to win the Super Bowl in 2026. Those are the 14th-best odds in the entire NFL, which amounts to being a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of their Super Bowl chances. Worse, the Buffalo Bills actually have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl, at 10.7%. Those odds for Buffalo are also, notably, the top odds in the AFC, while the Patriots have the 8th-best AFC odds.
It’s the Los Angeles Rams who have the best odds overall, at a 14.9% chance. Meanwhile, the Seattle Seahawks, who beat the Patriots in last year’s Super Bowl, have 7.0% odds to repeat, which is fourth-best in the NFL.
Seth Walder Explains Why FPI is Down on the New England Patriots
GettyNew England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye
The New England Patriots are the first team in the history of FPI to make the Super Bowl and be outside the Top 10 in FPI’s preseason Super Bowl odds the next year. However, ESPN’s Seth Walder dismisses this as more about the Patriots being lucky a season ago than FPI thinking they’ll fall off a cliff.
“On the surface, the Patriots’ numbers last season indicate a team with strong potential for sustained success. They led the league in EPA per play on offense and were 10th on defense. But those numbers came against the league’s easiest strength of schedule. The Patriots’ postseason schedule was also fortuitous, as they faced the Chargers, Texans and Bo Nix-less Broncos,” Walder wrote.
This, of course, was the common refrain Patriots fans heard. The schedule wasn’t difficult enough. It’s an argument Patriots fans are also getting pretty sick of hearing, especially with the memory of just how elite the defenses New England faced in the playoffs were projected to be.
On top of that, it’s an idea that doesn’t necessarily allow for the Patriots to improve. That’s in an offseason where the Patriots made major moves, particularly on offense. Walder did take note of that.
“On the other hand, this is not the same Patriots team as a year ago — especially not after acquiring wide receiver A.J. Brown. The former Eagles star gives a lift to the best and most important part of this Patriots team: the passing offense. So where does all of this leave New England in 2026? Still as a long-shot contender. The Patriots have a 6.7% and 2.7% chance to get back to, and win, the Super Bowl, respectively. That puts them on par with Denver and Houston,” Walder wrote.
“And the Patriots are decent underdogs to the Bills in the AFC East. Buffalo has a 67.6% chance to win the division, while the Patriots have a 30.6% shot.”
Vegas Set the Patriots Super Bowl Odds Following A.J. Brown Trade
GettyPhiladelphia Eagles WR A.J. Brown
Shortly following the trade for A.J. Brown, Vegas took a look at where the Patriots stood in their Super Bowl odds. It was notably higher than what FPI is expecting from New England this season.
FanDuel, for instance, has the Patriots at +1700 to win the Super Bowl. That’s tied for the sixth-best odds overall, and a notable jump from the 14th slot that FPI has the Patriots. FanDuel isn’t alone, though. DraftKings has the Patriots sitting at +1600, which is sixth among NFL teams again. However, those odds are even a bit better than FanDuel.
For most Patriots fans, those odds are likely more in line with what they’d expect to see. Of course, it’s also important to remember that the Patriots were an extreme long shot to even make the playoffs in 2025, let alone the Super Bowl. So, preseason odds only matter so much.
Patriots Get Disrespected by ESPN FPI After Release of Super Bowl Odds