The New England Patriots can leave the rain gear at home Sunday.
Getting comfortable in the Florida heat may be the bigger challenge.
New England heads to Jacksonville for a 1 p.m. ET matchup with the Jaguars on Sept. 27, and the forecast is setting up for a quintessential early-season road test in Florida: sunshine, temperatures climbing through the 80s and virtually no threat of rain.
It will be a significant change of scenery for a Patriots team that has spent September practicing and playing in New England.
And unlike rain or wind, which can reshape a game plan before kickoff, heat has a way of becoming more important the longer a game lasts.
Patriots-Jaguars Forecast Calls for Plenty of Sunshine and Heat
There isn’t much mystery surrounding Sunday’s forecast.
Conditions in Jacksonville are expected to be mostly sunny around the 1 p.m. kickoff, with temperatures around 80 degrees before continuing to climb during the afternoon. The forecast calls for a high in the mid-80s, with little wind and essentially no rain threat during the game window.
In other words, weather shouldn’t interfere with the football.
The temperature, however, could test New England.
Playing four quarters in the Florida sun is a different proposition than simply seeing “85 degrees” on a forecast. The Patriots will have to manage hydration, substitutions and fatigue, particularly as the afternoon wears on.
Jacksonville, of course, lives in those conditions. New England doesn’t.
That doesn’t make the weather an excuse or necessarily give the Jaguars some enormous advantage. It does make acclimation another piece of the road-game equation for Mike Vrabel and his team.
Florida Heat Adds Another Layer to Patriots’ Road Test
The timing is what makes Sunday’s forecast noteworthy.
A 1 p.m. kickoff puts the Patriots on the field during one of the hottest stretches of the afternoon, and the temperature is expected to rise after the opening kick rather than fall.
By 2 p.m., the forecast has Jacksonville around 84 degrees. It could reach approximately 85 to 87 degrees later in the afternoon.
There is also little wind expected to provide much relief, with speeds remaining relatively light throughout the game.
None of that should fundamentally alter what the Patriots want to do against Jacksonville. Maye won’t be throwing through driving rain. Special teams won’t be dealing with powerful gusts. Ball security shouldn’t suddenly become a weather-driven concern.
Instead, this is about endurance.
For New England, that could become particularly important late in the third quarter and into the fourth, when a warm September afternoon has been sitting on players for two-plus hours.
It also adds another variable to a road game the Patriots would love to control from the start. Sustained drives can keep New England’s defense off the field. Getting Jacksonville’s offense off the field quickly can do the same. In conditions like these, those extra snaps can start adding up.
There are certainly worse forecasts for an NFL game. Fans traveling to Jacksonville should get sunshine and dry conditions rather than thunderstorms or a washout.
But for the Patriots themselves, Sunday’s weather represents something they haven’t dealt with much this season.
New England is going south. And summer isn’t over yet.
Patriots Facing Major Weather Shift for Sunday’s Game vs. Jaguars