The New England Patriots need an answer after a 35-6 loss to Jacksonville, and a way to find it Sunday against the Buffalo Bills may run through TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson.
Despite a 3-0 start, Buffalo’s defense has shown an opening on the ground.
Patriots.com noted in its Week 4 gameplan that the Bills rank 23rd in rush EPA allowed and 27th in rushing success rate through three games. The same breakdown alluded to successful outside runs and spread looks used by the Chargers and Lions against Buffalo’s two-high structures.
With a New England offense trying to stabilize around Drake Maye, that weakness rears its head, a chance to dictate terms rather than spend an afternoon chasing the game.
Bills Run Defense Gives Patriots a Clear Opening
The Patriots haven’t got their backfield operating at full strength for an entire game.
Henderson missed the season opener against Seattle, then returned in Week 2 and gave New England the explosive element it had been missing. He carried 16 times for 76 yards against Pittsburgh, including a 39-yard touchdown run that helped swing the Patriots’ 20-3 win.
Patriots.com’s film review of the Pittsburgh win highlighted that touchdown as the type of play New England needs when opponents keep two safeties deep. Henderson hit a tackle-power concept against a light box, broke into the secondary and finished the run after a downfield block from DeMario Douglas.
The follow-up never came in Jacksonville.
Henderson had eight carries for 23 yards, while Stevenson finished with seven attempts for 22 yards in the 35-6 loss, via the Patriots’ official Week 3 box score. New England fell behind and never established enough rhythm to make its two-back plan matter.
The Bills have been more vulnerable when offenses widen the formation and attack the perimeter.
Patriots.com specifically mentioned a crack toss from the Chargers and an RPO from the Lions as examples New England could borrow. That fits Henderson’s speed and gives Stevenson a chance to punish lighter boxes if Buffalo stays in split-safety looks.
FantasyPros also noted in its Week 4 breakdown that Buffalo has allowed the 12th-highest explosive-run rate (Henderson proven here) and the sixth-highest missed-tackle rate (Stevenson when he gets a head of steam) in the league.
Henderson, Stevenson Can Help Change the Maye Matchup
There’s wider cause for New England needing more from the ground game than simply improving its rushing totals.
Defenses are playing split-safety coverage against Maye on 51.4% of his dropbacks this season, according to Patriots.com’s Week 4 analysis, the seventh-highest rate faced by a quarterback, up from 38.9% last season.
The idea is obvious. Keep a roof over the Patriots’ passing game to limit explosive throws and make New England patiently work underneath.
A productive rushing attack can force Buffalo to reconsider that approach.
Presuming Henderson and Stevenson consistently gain yards against lighter boxes, the Bills may have to spin a safety down or devote more resources to the run, creating the single-high looks Maye has had fewer opportunities to attack through the first three weeks.
New England has seen what happens when the ground game fails to stress the defense. The Patriots managed only 45 rushing yards from Henderson and Stevenson combined against Jacksonville, while Maye finished 14 of 25 for 199 yards with two interceptions.
Buffalo is undefeated and has enough defensive talent to wreck a game. But regardless, the stats dangle a place New England can attack.
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