Kellen Moore probably isn’t losing much sleep over the NFL’s first-coach-fired betting market.
That’s probably a good thing.
BetOnline Sports & Casino has updated its odds following the first week of preseason, and Moore is sitting at 33/1 to be the first head coach fired during the 2026 season. That’s a long way from Dan Quinn at 3/1, Todd Bowles at 7/2 and Aaron Glenn at 4/1.
Moore is tied with Mike McCarthy, and there are several other coaches sitting at shorter odds.
Of course, betting odds aren’t a prediction of what will actually happen. They’re a reflection of where the betting market is putting its money.
Still, the numbers tell an interesting story about how Moore is being viewed.
Nobody seems to think the New Orleans Saints are going into 2026 with Super Bowl-or-bust expectations.
And that could give Kellen Moore something that a lot of NFL coaches don’t have anymore.
Time.
The Saints hired Kellen Moore to help build the next version of the franchise. If that is really the plan, then expecting him to turn New Orleans into a championship contender immediately would make very little sense.
The Saints Don’t Have the Same Pressure to Win Now
Look at the coaches sitting near the top of the betting board.
Dan Quinn has the Washington Commanders. Todd Bowles has Tampa Bay. Aaron Glenn has the New York Jets.
Those situations come with considerably different expectations.
There is a reason coaches on teams that are expected to compete tend to find themselves under more pressure. If the roster is built to win now and the results don’t follow, somebody eventually has to take the blame.
The Saints don’t appear to be in that position.
New Orleans is still trying to figure out what its roster is going to look like for the next several years. Kellen Moore isn’t walking into a team that simply needs one or two pieces to get over the hump.
That’s an important distinction.
If the Saints struggle during the 2026 season, it shouldn’t automatically mean Moore has failed. There is a much bigger question to answer: Is New Orleans actually moving in the right direction?
If the answer is yes, Moore should be given the opportunity to continue.
That’s also why his 33/1 odds are interesting.
The market isn’t treating Kellen Moore like a coach whose team is expected to win immediately and therefore could be fired if it doesn’t.
It’s treating him more like a coach who has some runway.
The Saints should take advantage of that.
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Kellen Moore Should Be in New Orleans for the Long Haul
This is where the Saints need to think bigger than one season.
If New Orleans genuinely believes Moore is the coach capable of leading the franchise into its next era, then there is little reason to constantly evaluate him based on short-term results.
Coaching changes aren’t free.
Every time a franchise fires a coach, it risks starting the process over again. New systems are installed. Players have to adjust. Personnel decisions get revisited. And before long, another coach is asking for his own players.
That’s how organizations get stuck.
The Saints need stability.
Kellen Moore should be given the chance to establish an identity, develop his players and determine what kind of team New Orleans can realistically become.
That doesn’t mean he should have unlimited job security.
If the team gets worse, the players stop responding or there is no visible progress, then the conversation changes.
But that’s different from demanding a playoff berth immediately.
Moore has already gained valuable experience as an offensive coordinator, and now he has an opportunity to build something of his own.
The Saints shouldn’t be looking for reasons to replace him after one disappointing season.
They should be looking for evidence that he’s the right person to oversee the next five years.
That’s ultimately what makes the 33/1 number so interesting.
It isn’t necessarily saying Kellen Moore is guaranteed to keep his job.
It’s suggesting that, unlike several coaches sitting near the top of the board, he may actually have the benefit of reasonable expectations.
And for a coach trying to rebuild an organization, that could be worth far more than a few extra wins in September.
Kellen Moore Could Have More Job Security Than Expected