The New Orleans Saints look to have quite a bit of certitude at QB this season. Tyler Shough has emerged as the team’s undisputed starter. That faith is something that fans hope will translate into a great season.
If it doesn’t, Shough could ride the bench for the rest of the season.
As far as NFL benching odds go, that doesn’t quite seem to be a possibility for now.
According to BetOnline.ag, Shough isn’t likely to be among the first signal-callers to ride the bench. The odds show that Tua Tagovailoa will likely be the first QB to lose his job in the 2026 NFL season. He tops the list at 2/1 odds to hit the bench.
Tagovailoa is followed by Geno Smith of the New York Jets (5/2/) and Kirk Cousins of the Las Vegas Raiders (3/1). Cousins, as a matter of fact, could lose his job if star rookie Fernando Mendoza proves to be ready from the start.
As for Tyler Shough, he’s way down the list at 18/1. While they’re relatively long odds, they’re not nearly as long as some of the most secure QBs in the league. For instance, Patrick Mahomes has the longest odds of being benched at 300/1.
Even if the Saints seem secure with Shough at the helm, the heat might get a little hot for the second-year QB if things go south early in the season.
The Saints Have Too Much Faith in Shough to Pull the Plug Quickly
The Saints aren’t treating Tyler Shough like a quarterback who has one bad game before the organization starts looking for alternatives.
This is their guy.
Tyler Shough enters the 2026 season as the unquestioned starter after taking over for Spencer Rattler during the 2025 season. He started nine games as a rookie, and New Orleans went 5-4 in those games, including winning four of its final five. The Saints subsequently made it clear they were comfortable moving forward with him.
That matters when considering the benching odds.
Kellen Moore has already demonstrated that he isn’t afraid to make a quarterback change when he believes it is necessary. He benched Spencer Rattler last season after a disastrous stretch and handed the offense to Shough, making it clear that he wanted to give the rookie an opportunity to take control.
But that doesn’t mean Moore will be eager to repeat the process with Tyler Shough.
Quite the opposite.
The Saints have spent an entire offseason building around Shough. He’s had the first-team reps, the preparation and the opportunity to establish himself as the long-term answer.
For the Saints to bench him, things would probably have to go very wrong.
We’re talking about Shough falling completely off a cliff.
If he’s throwing too many interceptions, consistently missing open receivers and putting the offense in impossible situations, then sure, Moore may eventually have to consider a change.
But if Shough is simply inconsistent? Or the Saints lose a few close games?
Expect Moore to stick with him.
New Orleans needs to find out what Tyler Shough can actually become. Pulling the plug at the first sign of trouble would defeat the purpose of giving him the job in the first place.
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Fernando Mendoza Could Follow the Shough Path in Las Vegas
There’s another interesting quarterback storyline hiding in these odds.
Fernando Mendoza is listed at 14/1 to make his first start before the end of the season, with the BetOnline prop setting his over/under at Week 8.
And there is a very real possibility the Raiders could end up taking a path that looks a lot like what happened with Tyler Shough and the Saints
Mendoza was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after winning the Heisman Trophy and leading Indiana to an undefeated national championship season. Yet he won’t start Week 1 after the Raiders named Kirk Cousins their opening-day quarterback.
That doesn’t necessarily mean Mendoza will sit for long.
Cousins is 38 years old, while Mendoza represents the future of the franchise. The Raiders have already said they believe Mendoza’s opportunity will come, and the rookie remains a major part of their long-term plans.
That’s where the Week 8 prop gets interesting.
If Cousins struggles badly, the Raiders won’t have the luxury of pretending the future doesn’t exist.
Mendoza could eventually get the same opportunity Tyler Shough received last season.
And once a young quarterback gets that opportunity, everything can change.
That’s exactly what happened in New Orleans
The Saints weren’t planning to hand Shough the job when the 2025 season began. But circumstances changed, Shough got his chance and played well enough for the organization to make him the starter moving forward.
Mendoza could follow the same path.
The difference is that the Saints already know they want to ride with Shough.
The Raiders may find themselves figuring that out with Mendoza sooner than expected.
Saints’ Tyler Shough Gets Surprising NFL Benching Odds