With the Super Bowl now over and the new coaching staff in place, the New York Giants’ 2026 offseason is unofficially underway as we approach free agency and the NFL draft.
One of Big Blue’s biggest offseason decisions will come in round one of the draft, as head coach John Harbaugh collaborates with general manager Joe Schoen on his first NYG draft pick at No. 5 overall — assuming no trade occurs.
The Giants could go several routes with this pick. However, longtime NFL draft expert Todd McShay has them forgoing positional value to target a potentially elite building block in Ohio State safety Caleb Downs.
During his second official mock draft of 2026, McShay lined up Downs as Harbaugh’s first Giants rookie selection. And within his explanation as to why, the popular analyst delivered a reality check to incumbent safeties Jevon Holland and Tyler Nubin.
Giants’ Jevon Holland & Tyler Nubin Put on Notice Amid Todd McShay’s Caleb Downs NFL Draft Prediction
GettyWill New York Giants safety Tyler Nubin be relegated to a third safety role?
Schoen spent a second-round pick on Nubin in 2024. He then spent $45.3 million on Holland in 2025 free agency. Unfortunately, neither move has really panned out as expected.
“Downs would provide much-needed stability to the back end, as well as leadership and playmaking ability,” McShay noted within his mock.
“[Downs] would be the new standard for preparedness and attention to detail for New York on that side of the ball,” he continued. Adding: “Yes, the team brought in Jevon Holland in 2025 and drafted Tyler Nubin in Round 2 in 2024, but neither played well enough last season to secure their spot in 2026.”
There’s the cold, hard truth from McShay.
During his first season in New York, Holland only appeared in 14 games. Having said that, the big-money acquisition graded out well as a run defender (73.8) and tackler (73.7) on Pro Football Focus, even if he wasn’t as impactful as Schoen hoped.
Holland was good but not great in coverage, allowing 58.1% of targets to be caught for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns (1 interception). He allowed a passer rating of 93.9.
Nubin was the weaker link of the two, though, and considering Holland’s experience and cap hit, the third-year prospect could be the one who is eventually relegated to a backup role.
Per PFF, Nubin allowed a passer rating of 119.5 in 2025. This ranked second-worst for Giants defenders behind Deonte Banks (minimum of 200 coverage snaps).
Nubin also allowed 2 touchdowns and 77.1% of his targets to be caught. He was particularly poor as a tackler and run defender, too, and was charged with 15 missed tackles and an overall run defense grade of 47.1 on PFF.
Giants Would Make News If They Draft a Safety Over a Premium Position
Although Schoen is still in place, power has shifted within the Big Blue franchise. At the end of the day, Harbaugh is now calling the shots, and if he elects to bring in a playmaker like Downs, then that’s what the Giants will do.
With that in mind, a Downs selection would likely make news around Giants nation for a couple of reasons.
One, Schoen has not prioritized the safety position in the past, letting Xavier McKinney walk in free agency. And two, fans generally get loud when non-premium positions are picked inside the top 10.
Harbaugh marches to the beat of his own drum, though. With Baltimore, he spent a first-round pick on safety Kyle Hamilton and center Tyler Linderbaum, among others. And McShay believes he could forgo those more “premium” positions again in 2026.
“Wide receiver and offensive line have gotten a lot of attention at [the Giants’] spot in mocks, but I’m not sure either would be an ideal fit,” the draft expert argued.
“First off, I think the Giants will bring back unrestricted free agent RT Jermaine Eluemunor,” he explained. “If that happens, it’ll give them Andrew Thomas and Eluemunor as starting tackles and second-year OT/OG Marcus Mbow as a potential guard starter with swing tackle flexibility.”
“I also believe there’s enough depth in this class to find a difference-making starter at WR (such as a tall vertical threat like Chris Brazzell II or an explosive YAC option like Zachariah Branch) in Round 2 to pair with Malik Nabers,” he went on.
With LB/Edge Arvell Reese and Edge/DE David Bailey already off the board, McShay didn’t like the Giants reaching on defensive line at No. 5 either.
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