The Pittsburgh Steelers didn’t sign Rico Dowdle to a two-year, $12.25 million contract this offseason just to give Jaylen Warren an occasional breather.
That much has become increasingly clear throughout the summer. Dowdle has pushed Warren for the top spot in Pittsburgh’s backfield, and now one NFL insider believes Mike McCarthy could lean on his former Dallas Cowboys running back enough to put him in position to do something no player has ever done.
ESPN’s Dan Graziano predicted Dowdle will record his third straight 1,000-yard rushing season in 2026.
Rico Dowdle Could Make NFL History With Steelers
Dowdle has already proven he can carry a heavy workload. He rushed for 1,079 yards on 235 carries under McCarthy in Dallas in 2024, then followed that with 1,076 yards on 236 attempts for the Carolina Panthers last season.
Graziano believes the reunion with McCarthy could put Dowdle right back into that type of role.
“McCarthy knows Dowdle can be his lead back, and my understanding is that Dowdle is more likely to get the early-down work ahead of Jaylen Warren,” Graziano wrote. “Dowdle had just 235 carries in 2024 and 236 last season, but he did average 20.3 carries per game over the final seven games of that 2024 season in Dallas. Prorate that over a 17-game season, and it comes out to 345 carries. I don’t think McCarthy will be shy in giving him plenty of work.”
A third consecutive 1,000-yard season would carry some history with it. Dowdle would become the first player in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in three straight seasons for three different teams, according to Steelers Depot.
That possibility looked plausible even before Graziano’s latest report. During training camp that Dowdle had been consistently receiving first-team reps and appeared to have an early edge over Warren in the RB1 competition.
Pittsburgh’s initial depth chart still listed Warren first, but Steelers.com’s Mike Prisuta reported in August that the team was still sorting out the backfield order.
Jaylen Warren Still Has Major Role in Steelers Backfield
Warren isn’t expected to disappear from the offense, though.
The 27-year-old is coming off the best rushing season of his career, finishing with 958 yards and six touchdowns on 211 carries in 2025. He also caught 40 passes for 333 yards and two more scores.
His receiving ability is where Graziano expects him to separate from Dowdle, especially after Kenneth Gainwell left Pittsburgh for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers following a 73-catch season.
“As for Warren, I believe he’ll have a role, and a significant one,” Graziano wrote. “He caught 61 passes in 2023, which is 22 more than Dowdle has ever had in a season. And remember, running back Kenny Gainwell caught 73 passes for the Steelers in 2025 and now plays for Tampa Bay. Aaron Rodgers is definitely going to want to check the ball down to a running back to avoid sacks, and Warren profiles as more of a pass-catching back than Dowdle.”
That would leave Pittsburgh with a fairly defined split: Dowdle handling much of the early-down rushing work and Warren serving as the more dangerous receiving option.
For Dowdle, though, the opportunity could be much bigger than simply winning a backfield competition. One more 1,000-yard season would give the Steelers a productive lead runner and put his name in a place no NFL running back has reached before.
Steelers’ Rico Dowdle Gets Historic ESPN Prediction Amid Jaylen Warren Role Shift