Getty Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields
The rumors are all over the place. The Seattle Seahawks need a young franchise quarterback, the Chicago Bears have the No. 1 pick in a promising quarterback draft, and the Bears signal-caller is playing the best football of his career right now. A Seahawks-Bears Justin Fields trade seems like it could be a fit. The question is, what would bringing in Fields cost the Seahawks?
The Seahawks Would Likely Have to Give up a Day 2 Pick for Justin Fields
Leaving aside the question of whether the Seahawks should make a Justin Fields trade with the Bears to replace Geno Smith until later, let’s look at what it would cost to make this deal.
Obviously, the true answer won’t come to fruition until John Schneider gets on the phone with Ryan Poles and the two general managers start to hammer it out, but several well-connected NFL analysts and insiders have sourced general answers about Field’s price tag if he hits the open market.
“The consensus in an informal poll of league evaluators is that Fields would be worth a second- or third-round pick in a pre-draft trade,” ESPN’s Courtney Cronin and Jeremy Fowler wrote. “When compared to former top-10 picks recently traded, that’s better than Trey Lance, whom Dallas acquired from San Francisco for a fourth-round pick, but slightly worse than Sam Darnold, who, along with a sixth-round pick, went from the Jets to Carolina for second- and fourth-rounders.”
Other general managers in the league seem to be in the same ballpark, although the better Fields plays down the stretch of the 2023 season, the higher his price tag is going to go. Charles Robinson of Yahoo! Sports spoke to seven NFL GMs, who all gave their hypothetical trade proposals for Fields.
Two said a second-round pick, with one adding a fourth, and one had a second or third. The other four all had thirds, either straight-up or with some late-round picks changing hands one way or the other.
This presents a bit of a problem for the Seahawks, as the New York Giants currently own the team’s 2024 second-round selection due to the Leonard Williams trade. However, Seattle does have two third-round picks in April thanks to a draft-day trade with the Denver Broncos in the 2023 NFL Draft, per Fanspo.
Why Seattle Should Move on From Geno Smith
If the Bears decide to make a Justin Fields trade available to the league, the Seahawks are a team that would likely at least consider this type of deal.
The Geno Smith era in Seattle seems to have run its course. The veteran QB has been incredible — relative to expectations — after the Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson last offseason. Smith was so good in 2022 that the franchise rewarded him with a three-year, $75,000,000 deal.
However, as with most NFL contracts, the reported number is not what it seems.
Moving on from Smith this offseason offers the Seahawks considerable salary cap savings. He’s scheduled for a $31,200,000 cap hit next season, with a $17,400,000 dead cap figure. So, cutting him before June 1 will save the team $13,800,000 in 2024, per Spotrac.
If they cut Smith after June 1, the team can spread the dead cap hit over two years, bringing it down to $8,700,000 in 2024 and 2025. That would save the team $22,500,000 next season.
With the amount of rookie contracts the team currently has, taking the entire hit next year is probably better in the long run, especially if they get a young QB they will need to pay in 2025.
Does a Justin Fields Trade Make Sense?
Since returning from injury on Nov. 19 against the Detroit Lions, Fields has been an excellent quarterback. He’s led the Bears to a 4-2 record in that time and has tossed five touchdowns to just three interceptions. He’s also put up over 200 yards of total offense (passing and rushing) in every game but one, and that was against arguably the best defense in the NFL, the Cleveland Browns.
If the Bears draft a QB, and Fields is available, the Seahawks will have to kick the tires on a trade.
Thanks to the Wilson trade, Seattle has taken seven players in the first two rounds of the last two drafts. That’s why the team felt comfortable trading a second in 2024 for Leonard.
If a third and a fourth — or even two thirds — will get the franchise a young QB with upside who they at least know can play in the NFL and win games, the Seahawks should trade for the Bears signal-caller.