The Detroit Red Wings spent most of last season close to ending their playoff drought. A new season forecast now raises a possibility: Detroit may still finish at the bottom of the Atlantic Division.
Daily Faceoff delivered that assessment in its 2026-27 Red Wings preview, published September 1. Analyst Scott Maxwell concluded that Detroit looks more likely to finish last in the division than to qualify for the playoffs.
That represents an opinion, not an organizational expectation or statistical certainty. Nevertheless, the reasoning behind it shows how little margin for error the Red Wings may have after another frustrating offseason.
Detroit Lost More Offense Than It Added
Detroit scored 2.91 goals per game last season, which ranked 22nd in the NHL. The power play finished 12th at 22.6%, but the overall offense lacked enough depth to survive injuries, slumps, and the team’s post-Olympic collapse.
The Red Wings then lost Patrick Kane, David Perron, and James van Riemsdyk. Those three forwards combined for 34 goals and 91 points last season, according to Daily Faceoff. Viktor Arvidsson should replace some of that production, but Detroit still needs contributions from younger players such as Marco Kasper, Emmitt Finnie, and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard.
Captain Dylan Larkin’s unresolved future adds another complication. Larkin remains Detroit’s only established top-line center, so any eventual trade would create an enormous hole unless the return included an immediate replacement.
The organization also must finish a contract with restricted free agent Simon Edvinsson and hire its next general manager.
The Atlantic Division Offers No Easy Path
Detroit held third place in the Atlantic at the Olympic break last season with a 33-19-6 record. The Red Wings then went 8-12-4 over their final 24 games and finished seven points behind Ottawa for the last playoff position.
That collapse would concern fans even if the surrounding division had remained unchanged. Instead, the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs improved after five other Atlantic teams reached the playoffs last season.
The forecast does not mean Detroit will inevitably finish eighth. Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond, and Alex DeBrincat give the Red Wings high-end talent, while a breakthrough from Brandsegg-Nygard, Carter Bear, or Nate Danielson could change the team’s outlook.
Detroit also received strong goaltending from John Gibson last season. He posted a .901 save percentage and ranked seventh with 22.04 five-on-five goals saved above expected, giving the Red Wings a dependable foundation in net.
Still, Detroit needs several favorable outcomes merely to remain in the playoff race. The young forwards must produce, Gibson must stay healthy, Edvinsson must sign, and the eventual resolution for Larkin cannot weaken the lineup.
The Red Wings entered the offseason needing a decisive step forward. This new prediction argues that they may have moved in the opposite direction—and that another late-season collapse might not be necessary for Detroit to miss the playoffs again.
Analyst’s Red Wings Prediction Reveals How Far Detroit Could Fall