One of the chief analytics experts in the NHL media community had high praise for a team that many aren’t sure about heading into next season. Dom Luszczyszyn, writer and analyst for The Athletic, published his models’ findings on Thursday. The model had high praise for the Nashville Predators, particularly the trade for former Dallas forward Mavrik Bourque.
At the direction of new GM Chris MacFarland, the Nashville Predators have been aggressive. They’ve added a unique blend of rising stars, former Avalanche depth pieces and analytical darlings. Luszczyszyn’s model ranked Nashville as having added the most value of any NHL team so far this summer.
Nashville’s Savvy Cap Maneuvering Helps Land Forward Mavrik Bourque
Nashville added five forwards, most of whom will play further down the lineup. The Predators’ prized addition was thanks in part to MacFarland’s savvy reading of the market. They traded two non-premium draft picks (their 2nd in 2027 and Vegas’s 3rd in 2028) to acquire forward Mavrik Bourque from Dallas. The Stars traded Bourque —likely below market value — because of a variety of factors. Philadelphia had been threatening an offer sheet, according to reporting by Kevin Kurz of The Athletic. The Stars also attached overpriced defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin to the deal with Nashville, as they continued to navigate ways to retain superstar restricted free agent winger Jason Robertson.
All in all, it was definitely tidy business by MacFarland. He cheaply poached a good, young player with top-six upside from a vulnerable division rival. He did that by weaponizing his cap space. Lyubushkin has one year remaining at $3.25 million. That’s not a massive amount in this new cap environment, but it mattered in Dallas. They’re trying to navigate tricky salary cap waters, and Nashville lent them a helping hand at a price that benefited the Predators.
Depth Matters to Predators New GM
Chris MacFarland executed one of the most consequential trades of the salary cap era, dealing superstar Colorado Avalanche winger Mikko Rantanen to Carolina before the 2025 trade deadline. Colorado has not always been praised for that move, but it acquired a similar regular-season producer in Martin Necas, draft capital and depth down the middle in the form of center Jack Drury in hopes of making the team more complete down the lineup.
Two seasons later, Drury is a Nashville Predator. MacFarland traded for Drury, a restricted free agent center who can also play on the wing. Drury is a defense-first forward who matched his career high of 27 points this season. More importantly, he grades out as a top defensive matchup forward. He’s also one of the league’s best face-off takers, winning more than 57 percent in his career.
He also added another former Avalanche depth forward in Ross Colton. He’s a winger who can play down the middle, chip in depth scoring and has significant playoff experience. Colton won a Stanley Cup in Tampa Bay in 2021. For only one year, he’s a low-risk bounceback bet who scored 16 goals playing a limited role in four consecutive seasons split between Tampa and Colorado. Last season, he scored only nine goals in 73 games, which was the lowest rate of his career.
Nashville Bets on Bounce-back Candidates
Colton wasn’t the only bounce-back bet made by MacFarland. He acquired Nils Hoglander, an undersized 25-year-old winger who flashed offensive upside in Vancouver but lacked consistency. Hoglander scored 24 goals in 2023-24. He’s a reclamation project who could prove a capable depth goal scorer.
There’s a pattern here: five-on-five scoring. Nashville was 26th in the NHL in five-on-five shooting percentage last season. That and disappointing goaltending from Juuse Saros kept Nashville out of the playoffs in the Western Conference wildcard race that turned into a turtle derby by season’s end. Saaros finished 86 of 98 goalies in MoneyPuck’s Goals Saved Above Expected metric.
Nashville is banking on their big money goaltender having a bounce-back season internally, but externally, the plan seems to be to surround him with better goal-scoring. The combined forward additions scored 42 of their 51 goals last season at five-on-five, per Natural Stat Trick.
It may not make them an immediate playoff contender, but the Predators’ special teams powered them to a 32-22-4 stretch after Thanksgiving. Betting on good two-way players like forward Mavrik Bourque isn’t the worst way to improve your team. Betting on depth five-on-five goal scoring is also a solid first-season strategy.
Analytics Expert: Nashville’s Acquisition of Young Star Highlights Strong Summer