The New Jersey Devils’ most utilized five-on-five line last season failed to translate elite possession numbers into actual goals. It’s likely, at least in part, the reason the Devils acquired winger Luke Evangelista, which opens up questions about Dawson Mercer’s future.
While not an elite goal scorer, Evangelista’s passing and play-driving should open up additional space for Nico Hischier and Timo Meier.
Luke Evangelista scored 9 goals below expected last year.
That adjustment would have netted him 65 points. He shot at 6.8%, 1.6% below his career-average, and recorded a third-straight season with a PDO below 100.
Even after a career-year, he still has space to climb. Only 24.
— Foley (@NHLFoley) September 2, 2026
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Promise and Potential Don’t Always Add Up for Devils Forward
For a moment, it looked like the Devils might have found the steal of the first round in the 2020 NHL Draft.
Dawson Mercer’s future looked bright in the Garden State. He opened his NHL career with 42 points (17 goals and 25 assists) in 82 games as a 20-year-old in 2021-22. Mercer followed that with 56 points (27 goals and 29 assists) in his age-21 season in 2022-23.
In total, Mercer opened his career by outproducing fellow 2020 draft pick Alexis Lafrenière. Considering the latter was the number one pick of the draft and a pick by arch-rival New York, Devils fans relished Mercer’s rise.
Certainly, there were always questions about whether Mercer was more of a center or a winger. Fans also wondered where he fit best in the Devils lineup. Could he be the missing piece on a line with one of their elite centers? Or, conversely, should he be the third-line center who dominates his matchups? It didn’t matter, though, as long as he produced.
Dawson Mercer’s Future in New Jersey is Murky
Mercer almost immediately hit a wall. His final season under Lindy Ruff saw his production crater. He dropped from 56 points to 33 in 2023-24. His advanced metrics started to crater. In pure goals for and against, he was underwater in 2023-24. Mercer went from plus-13 at five-on-five in 2022-23 to minus-15 at five-on-five in 2023-24.
Since then, he’s never regained the form that made him look like an X-factor in New Jersey’s (now stalled) ascension to the top of the Eastern Conference.
The New Jersey Devils spent this offseason improving depth. While they still don’t have a true insurance policy for a Jack Hughes injury, the depth scoring added to the team should help immensely.
The Devils added center Evan Rodrigues and tried to poach restricted free agent Barrett Hayton from Utah. The Mammoth matched the offer sheet, opting to risk losing Hayton for nothing rather than lose him for subpar value. That offer sheet came after the Devils acquired Rodrigues, indicating they knew center depth is an issue even with Mercer.
It’s indicative that new GM Sunny Mehta likely doesn’t think Mercer is on scholarship any longer.
Contract Situation Also Muddies Dawson Mercer’s Future
The New Jersey Devils have oodles of cap space after this season. If Mercer does break out, the team can keep him. Granted, they’re more likely to prioritize pending restricted free agent Evangelista after using draft capital to acquire him. Also, it seems unlikely the Devils won’t add at least some salary to their crease.
Mercer will enter the summer of 2027 as an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent with a year to go until free agency. The Devils don’t seem sold on Mercer now. If he loses his top-six spot to Evangelista, will the Devils pay a premium price for him?
Make no mistake, if the Devils want to keep Mercer, they probably can. The team will have $32 million in cap space next summer with the flexibility to free up more, if necessary. The issue is whether the new boss will feel that it’s necessary to merge New Jersey and Dawson Mercer’s future together.
Mercer’s average production is 42 points per 82 games, which isn’t bad. In three of his five NHL seasons, he’s been on-ice for more goals against than goals for. Last season, his advanced metrics rebounded nicely after two mediocre seasons.
All in all, the Mercer water is a little murky. It’s fair to wonder if he’s a part of the Devils’ push to reinvigorate the Hischier-Hughes era, or a trade piece to supplement it.
New Jersey Devils Acquisition of Young Winger Muddies Waters for Dawson Mercer