There has been so much chatter this offseason about numerous contract extensions. By far, Cale Makar’s took the cake. But one deal no one is talking about is Tampa Bay Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov’s extension.
As The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun noted on Tuesday, the reigning Hart Trophy winner will be entering this season without a contract in place.
Normally, that’s the sort of thing that would send shivers down fans’ spines. But for some reason, no one is really talking about this situation.
Yes, as LeBrun pointed out, the Lightning are very careful with their negotiations. They strive to keep things out of the public eye.
But one has to wonder to what extent Lightning fans can go on without clarity on Kucherov’s future.
There is no doubt that Kucherov is Tampa’s most important player. And it’s no surprise that the Bolts are right up against the cap.
But would that be enough of an impediment to get a deal done? There might be a situation that could determine whether a deal gets done sooner rather than later.
The September 16 Deadline Could Force the Lightning’s Hand
LeBrun’s reporting raises an intriguing possibility for the Lightning.
The new CBA will change the maximum length of contract extensions, meaning Sept. 16 could effectively be the deadline for Tampa and Kucherov to agree to an eight-year extension.
That matters because Kucherov is already 33.
Normally, giving an eight-year contract to a player entering his mid-30s would be difficult to justify. The Lightning would potentially be committing themselves to paying Kucherov deep into his 40s.
But there is another way to look at it.
The additional years could allow Kucherov to keep his annual cap hit lower. Instead of demanding an enormous AAV on a shorter contract, he could spread the money over eight seasons and give Tampa more room to build around him.
That could be the compromise that makes an extension possible.
The Lightning already have a projected cap crunch, with just a little more than $2 million in current space, according to The Stanley Cap.
If eight years allows Tampa to keep Kucherov’s cap hit manageable, there is a legitimate reason to get a deal done before Sept. 16.
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How Much Is Kucherov Actually Worth?
This is where things get really complicated for the Lightning.
Leo Carlsson just received an $18 million annual salary after Philadelphia’s offer sheet, despite having never won a Hart Trophy or Stanley Cup. Kucherov has now won two Hart Trophies and two Stanley Cups while establishing himself as one of the most productive players of his generation.
So what is he actually worth?
That’s the question Tampa eventually has to answer.
Kucherov scored 44 goals and 86 assists last season. He finished second in the NHL with 130 points and was ultimately voted the league’s MVP.
If Kucherov wants something approaching the enormous numbers being handed out to younger superstars, the Lightning could have a problem.
On the other hand, Kucherov has already spent his entire NHL career in Tampa and has won two championships there. Florida’s favorable tax environment could also make a lower AAV more attractive than it would be elsewhere.
Maybe Kucherov values staying with the Lightning enough to leave some money on the table.
But that’s impossible to know right now.
And if Tampa can’t find that number before the deadline, Kucherov could simply take his services to the open market next summer.
That’s what makes this the Lightning’s most important contract situation — even if almost nobody is talking about it yet.
Lightning Kucherov Extension Is the Deal No One Is Talking About