The Toronto Maple Leafs might have dodged a bullet with Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Zach Werenski.
No, that’s not hyperbole. That’s a reality which could have derailed the Leafs’ overall plan for years to come.
Specifically, Werenski is set to become a free agent in the summer of 2028. That would make him eligible to sign an extension on July 1, 2027. And given how Cale Makar just raised the bar for defensemen in the NHL, re-signing Werenski isn’t going to come cheap.
That’s why the Maple Leafs might have spared themselves a massive pickle.
The issue is not determining whether Werenski could be worth $20 million per season. The problem is that the Maple Leafs might have had to decide between keeping Werenski and Auston Matthews. Both stars are on track to become UFAs in 2028.
So, assuming that the Maple Leafs had traded for Werenski, would it have been plausible to sign both Matthews and the star blueliner to deals close to $20 million? Would having two $20 million players make sense?
It’s unclear whether John Chayka actually figured something like this must have happened. But then again, everyone following the NHL figured that once Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes signed, the market for defensemen would shoot through the roof.
And that’s exactly what happened.
Maple Leafs Shouldn’t Give Up on Werenski
Now, there might be a bit of a silver lining in this entire discussion. The Columbus Blue Jackets will find themselves in a bind of their own. They’ll do everything they can to keep Werenski. And that would mean signing him to a lucrative extension.
Even if Columbus were willing to shell out the big bucks, would it mean that Werenski even wants to stay?
What if Columbus figures that paying Werenski and Adam Fantilli could be too much?
At that point, the Blue Jackets might be willing to let Werenski go for a much lower price than they would have earlier this summer.
That’s where the Maple Leafs could grab a deal, at least as far as the acquisition cost for Werenski is concerned.
That wouldn’t remove the actual issue with re-signing the 29-year-old. But at least the Maple Leafs could land Werenski for the next year and a half, or so.
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Toronto Should Just Make the Trade and Figure Out the Rest Later
One way of looking at this situation lies in just making the trade, and then working hard to figure the rest out. For Werenski, he’s looking at his last payday. That means he’d be willing to take a long-term deal that would guarantee his money until the end of his career.
That’s not a bad idea. And given the Maple Leafs’ cap situation, it could work. There might be an avenue where the Leafs could sign Matthews, Werenski, and then Gavin McKenna in 2029, allowing the Leafs to have some sort of superstar core.
It’s a bit of a long shot at this point.
There’s no telling just how much the Blue Jackets are ready to part with their prized defenseman. Both sides have pledged allegiance to one another. So, a trade might not be happening right now. But that’s something that could change very quickly once the season begins.
Maple Leafs Might Have Dodged a Bullet with Zach Werenski