The Toronto Maple Leafs have several questionable contracts on their books. One, like the Max Domi deal, is a deal the club would love to get out from under.
But there’s one in particular that ranks as the Maple Leafs’ least effective deal should surprise no one: Morgan Rielly.
A recent piece in The Athletic looked at every team’s contract situation. The ranking placed the Maple Leafs 21st, with numerous contracts looking dubious in the team’s books. But it was Rielly’s that looked the worst.
The contract earned a D+ grade given its 17.1% positive value. The contract also comes with a -$10.9 million surplus value.
In other words, Rielly’s deal is costing the organization money instead of producing benefits. And looking at the data, it’s not hard to see why.
The Maple Leafs signed Rielly to an eight-year deal with a $7.5 million AAV value. That contract happened under the assumption that Rielly was still a top-pairing defenseman. However, the longest-tenured Maple Leafs player has seen his production decline.
And it’s that decline that has called the 32-year-old’s value into question.
Maple Leafs Will Need Increase in Production from Rielly
It doesn’t look like Rielly could turn his contract into a bargain moving forward. Unless he can somehow turn into a Norris Trophy winner at this point in his career, the best the Maple Leafs can hope for is an uptick in Rielly’s production.
That is actually a possibility given the coaching change happening this season. Rielly’s production plummeted in the two years the Maple Leafs played under Craig Berube. The former first-round pick’s role with the club diminished into a defense-first defender.
That’s something that should change under Jim Hiller. The expectation is that Hiller will unleash Rielly so that he can go back to the sort of game plan he had during the Sheldon Keefe days. If Hiller allows Rielly that freedom, there might just be an increase in Rielly’s overall offensive numbers.
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Rising Cap Makes Rielly’s Contract Look Less Onerous
If there is any bit of good news for the Maple Leafs, it’s that the rising salary cap has made Rielly’s contract look less onerous. In other words, as the cap ceiling increases, Rielly’s overall cap hit decreases.
That still doesn’t make the contract a bargain, but it becomes less of a burden on the organization. That’s about the only bit of good news for the Maple Leafs as they look to become a more competitive team this season.
Perhaps an uptick in production might make Rielly more appealing to teams looking for a defenseman this season. It could make things easier for Toronto as it looks to trade Rielly at some point.
While there is no indication that a deal is imminent at this point, a good, bounce-back season could help John Chayka’s chances of moving Rielly.
That’s a big if at the moment. But things can change. Perhaps a revival of Rielly’s game could be the sort of thing that makes him too valuable for the Maple Leafs to trade moving forward.
Maple Leafs’ Most Inefficient Contract Should Surprise No One