There is a new trend emerging in the NHL, one that the Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Rangers will become pioneers of.
The idea of tanking is about as old as the draft system in pro sports. But in some leagues, it’s worse than others. For instance, MLB teams notoriously field minor league-caliber teams while they seek high picks.
While that’s not really new in the NHL, it’s about to get really bad. In previous years, teams like the Maple Leafs tanked once every generation. And even then, the tanking wasn’t that blatant.
Sure, the Buffalo Sabres tried their best in 2015 to get Connor McDavid. The Maple Leafs successfully pulled it off in 2016 to land Auston Matthews.
That’s why the league implemented the NHL Draft Lottery. The goal was to deter teams from intentionally tanking. After all, finishing last overall did not guarantee the first-overall pick. But it did guarantee at least a top-three pick.
That’s not a bad way to end a dismal season. And it’s a trend that will only continue. As Maple Leafs insider James Mirtle pointed out on a recent appearance on the JD Bunkis Podcast. There are two main factors driving this trend.
Rising Cap Forces Teams like Maple Leafs, Rangers to Focus on Drafting
As Mirtle pointed out, the rising cap has alleviated the pressure on teams to trade impending UFAs. During the flat-cap post-COVID era, teams had to move UFAs due to cap constraints. That situation allowed clubs to move their draft picks in exchange for stars.
That’s not the case anymore. This season was a prime example of it. Teams were able to re-sign their impending UFAs, largely depleting the UFA class.
That’s something that will greatly affect the New York Rangers. Like the Maple Leafs, they’re looking to pull off a quick retool. But the lack of available UFAs makes it challenging to spend their way out of the situation.
Regardless of the rising cap, teams can’t blow it on free agents just because other clubs are holding on to their top players.
So, barren trade and free-agent markets leave would-be rebuilding teams grasping at straws.
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Rebuilding Teams Will Need to Tank More than Ever
Teams looking to rebuild will need to tank more than ever. Contenders sensing the end of their competitive windows will have to gradually turn their attention to drafting and player development.
The Maple Leafs and Rangers will likely turn to NCAA and overseas free agents to supplement their lack of draft picks. In the coming seasons, fans can expect clubs to be much more cautious about trading their top picks. Such picks will only move in case of blockbuster deals.
However, the NHL risks plateauing. Major trades will only happen if teams feel a star player does not want to remain in the organization. That was the case of Quinn Hughes in Vancouver. But as long as the cap keeps rising, teams will have the dry powder to keep their stars.
That’s all the more reason for a team like the Maple Leafs to tank. They don’t have useful assets. So, they’ll need to get creative in finding ways to recoup something for the future.
Maple Leafs, Rangers pioneers in a sad NHL trend