The Toronto Maple Leafs have emerged as a surprising contender for Columbus Blue Jackets forward Kirill Marchenko.
Notable insider Elliotte Friedman made the stunning claim in the latest edition of the 32 Thoughts Podcast, revealing that the Maple Leafs have been trying to keep their pursuit of the Russian winger under wraps.
“Toronto, I think has really tried to keep their interest secret, but it’s kind of seeped out.”
The revelation is certainly interesting, considering how the organization is looking to do everything it can to really compete this season and beyond.
That’s why it should be surprising to hear about the Maple Leafs at least looking to see what it would take to land Marchenko and subsequently sign him to a contract extension.
It’s worth noting that Friedman pointed out the Blue Jackets feel that Marchenko is no longer a real fit with the team. Columbus has been trying to establish a new team culture and whatnot, with the 26-year-old just not really fitting in anymore.
So, there are a couple of questions that remain regarding Marchenko’s potential arrival in a Maple Leafs sweater.
Maple Leafs May Have to Pay a Steep Price to Land Marchenko
The Maple Leafs don’t have an obvious trade package for Kirill Marchenko.
That’s probably the biggest problem with this potential deal.
Columbus isn’t going to give away a 26-year-old winger coming off a 27-goal, 67-point season. Marchenko is also under contract at just $3.85 million for 2026-27, making him an especially attractive trade target.
Toronto, meanwhile, doesn’t have an abundance of premium draft capital or young NHL-ready players it can easily sacrifice.
That makes this difficult.
The situation may have changed somewhat after Columbus finally signed Adam Fantilli to a six-year, $82.5 million contract. Fantilli’s $13.75 million cap hit changes the Blue Jackets’ financial picture and could make a Marchenko trade more practical if Columbus decides it needs to redistribute money elsewhere.
But the Maple Leafs still have to make the numbers work in a trade.
Would Columbus want a prospect? A young roster player? Multiple draft picks?
Toronto may have to surrender more than it would like simply because Marchenko is the type of player other teams can want, too.
And that’s where this rumored pursuit could get complicated.
Re-Signing Marchenko Could Be an Even Bigger Problem
Acquiring Marchenko would only be the beginning for the Maple Leafs.
His current $3.85 million contract expires after this season, and he will be a restricted free agent. After scoring 27 goals and 67 points last season, Marchenko has put himself in position for a significant raise.
So what would that number look like?
It’s difficult to know.
A $10 million annual salary isn’t completely unreasonable if Marchenko establishes himself as a consistent 30-goal scorer, particularly with the salary cap continuing to rise. But that’s probably closer to the ceiling of his negotiating range than a realistic prediction.
A five-year contract somewhere around $8 million to $9 million annually feels like a more reasonable estimate.
That’s still a massive commitment.
And it creates an interesting question for the Maple Leafs: If that’s what Marchenko ultimately wants, would Toronto even want to acquire him?
That’s the catch.
The Maple Leafs would be giving up valuable assets to acquire a player they could then have to pay close to $9 million per season.
Marchenko could absolutely become worth that money.
But Toronto can’t know that for certain.
That’s why Friedman’s revelation about the Maple Leafs quietly pursuing the former second-round pick is so interesting. The organization isn’t simply deciding whether Marchenko would look good in its lineup.
It has to decide whether the entire financial equation makes sense.
And if the price gets too high in either the trade or contract negotiations, the Maple Leafs may decide that keeping their limited assets and cap space is the better route.
Maple Leafs Reportedly Have Marchenko in Their Sights, Insider