The FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball looks to be Argentine star Lionel Messi’s to lose. But even if the Inter Miami star comes away with his second title, he could still miss out on the tournament MVP honors.
Messi’s main contender could be none other than Spanish midfielder Rodrigo “Rodri” Hernandez.
Rodri’s performance at this year’s World Cup has put the entire football establishment on notice. He’s led the upstart Spanish side all the way to the Final in the 2026 edition.
And with a bit of good luck, Spain could earn its second star.
Oddsmakers and experts have taken notice. The folks at Oddschecker have put their proprietary models to work, fleshing out who could take home the FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball.
Here’s a look at the current probabilities:
- Lionel Messi 40%
- Jude Bellingham 33%
- Rodri 22%
It’s worth pointing out that, despite missing out on the Final, Jude Bellingham’s spectacular goal in the third-place match against France could elevate his standing with voters. Bellingham was not a starter for Saturday’s match. But entered as a substitute and proceeded to score a much-needed insurance goal for the English side.
While that performance could tip the scales in Bellingham’s favor, the final call on the FIFA World Cup 2026’s most valuable player could come down to Sunday’s final between Argentina and Spain.
Rodri Could Still Take FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball Even in Defeat
The biggest question here lies in who will win Sunday’s final match. Oddsmakers seemed divided to a certain extent, though it looks like the favorite is Spain. If the Spanish side prevails, Rodri will most assuredly take home the FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball.
But even if Argentina takes home its fourth star, Rodri could still get the honors as the tournament’s top player.
While Messi has been nothing short of brilliant, Rodri has been the mainstay, keeping Spain humming along. The Spanish haven’t exactly had an easy time. Wins over France and Portugal in the knockout stage proved just how good this side really is.
And even if Spain falls on Sunday, it will be hard to top Rodri for the FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball.
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Messi Will Need Strong Performance to Secure MVP
Of course, there’s no selling Messi short. He has a knack for coming up big in big matches. Sunday will be no exception. But it will take a strong performance from the 39-year-old to secure the FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball.
If Messi can rise to the occasion like he did in the massive comebacks against England and Egypt, the Argentine international could walk away with the top honor.
The decision will more than likely come down to Sunday’s showdown. Fans will be in for a treat. If the game shapes up to be as everyone expects, it will be almost impossible to decide who gets the tournament MVP award.
Although, it seems that Rodri has the inside track on capturing the tourney’s top honor, regardless of Sunday’s outcome on the pitch.
FIFA World Cup 2026 Golden Ball Could Go to Spanish Star