With the USMNT set to take on Belgium on Monday night in its Round of 16 matchup at the FIFA World Cup 2026, it’s worth looking into the latest AI projections.
The US has already made significant headway, notching a decisive 2-0 win over Bosnia and Herzegovina in its Round of 32 matchup.
That performance has fueled optimistic projections regarding the USMNT’s chances of making it to the quarterfinals. The proprietary model by Oddschecker shows that the Americans have a 59% chance of making it to the quarterfinals.
Those numbers are not bad, especially when considering they represent the fifth-best odds of reaching the final eight. Of course, the upcoming match against Belgium won’t be easy. But looking at the data, there’s a pretty good chance the US can have its best showing in FIFA World Cup history.
The projections showed that the USMNT had an 83% chance of reaching the Round of 16. That projection was proven correct, with fans hoping that the latest numbers prove accurate as well.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side will be looking to build on the success already shown. The US remains the lone host country remaining after the eliminations of Canada and Mexico.
Projections Show USMNT with Slim Chances to Make FIFA World Cup 2026 Final
The road to the FIFA World Cup 2026 final does not look easy for the USMNT. If the American squad can get past Belgium on Monday night, it will have to face the winner of the Portugal-Spain matchup.
As such, facing one of the European giants will be a tall order for the US in the quarterfinal. Projections, nonetheless, show the US has a 19% chance of reaching the semifinal. That’s not bad, but not as encouraging.
It’s worth pointing out that once the Round of 16 ends, the AI projections should reset. That situation should allow the model to produce a more accurate assessment of the teams heading into the next round of play.
But first things first. The USMNT needs to get past Belgium before setting its sights on the next opponent.
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Balogun to Suit Up Against Belgium
USMNT star Folarin Balogun will be in the lineup on Monday night against Belgium. Folarin had received a one-game ban following a red card in his last game against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
However, The Athletic reported that US President Donald Trump called FIFA President Gianni Infantino to ask for a review of Balogun’s suspension.
While Mr. Infantino did not make any assurances, FIFA announced that it would be overturning Balogun’s suspension.
The decision has sent shockwaves as it is an unprecedented move. Belgium has officially protested the move, but it seems unlikely its appeal will be heard in time before the match.
For his part, Mr. Trump manifested his appreciation of the unusual decision.
“Thank you to FIFA for doing what was right and reversing a great injustice.”
It remains unclear just how much Balogun’s presence will help boost the USMNT’s chances against Belgium. The two sides will meet in Seattle at 5 pm PST.
USMNT Fans Should Be Excited About Latest AI Projections