Blue Jays Make $10 Million Bet Against Max Scherzer’s Health

Max Scherzer
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The Toronto Blue Jays could have to pay Max Scherzer an additional $10 million due to his contract structure.

The Toronto Blue Jays brought back veteran right-hander Max Scherzer on a one-year, $3 million deal, but the contract could actually cost the club more than four times that amount, which would add to what is shaping up to be a record-breaking payroll.

Scherzer’s agreement includes an incentive structure that will pay him an additional $1 million if he reaches 65 innings pitched. The bonuses increase by $1 million at 10-inning intervals, all the way up to 155 frames. The base salary for Scherzer’s deal pushes Toronto’s payroll to roughly $289 million, per RosterResource. With the luxury tax factored in, it’ll be more like $319 million.

The incentives could make the true value of Scherzer’s contract to be $13 million if he completes the full ladder of bonuses. That would be much closer to the $15.5 million guarantee he earned last offseason. Even in an injury-riddled 2025 campaign, the veteran still reached 85 innings. If the contract structure had been in place last year, he would’ve picked up an extra $3 million for 17 starts of a 5.19 ERA.


Toronto Blue Jays May Pay Max Scherzer $13 Million Instead of $3 Million

It may sound unrealistic for a 41-year-old to repeat 85 innings, much less run the workload up over 150 frames, though Scherzer has shown that type of upside recently. The right-hander exceeded 145 innings in three straight years from 2021 through 2023. He’s been banged up a bit since then, but challenging for the full $10 million in incentives is not out of the question.

Scherzer signed a one-year deal with the Blue Jays last offseason. He made his first start with the club in late March, only to immediately head to the IL with thumb inflammation. The pesky issue on his right hand kept the veteran sidelined deep into June. Scherzer made it back just before the All-Star break. He remained healthy through the postseason, where he earned a win in the American League Championship Series against the Seattle Mariners.

The righty had two outings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series, both of which were 4.1 innings. Scherzer delivered a solid 3.77 ERA across 14.1 frames in the playoffs. He gave up three home runs, but aside from the long balls, did a decent job keeping runs off the board. The postseason appearances pushed Scherzer’s 2025 workload to 99.1 innings.


How Does Max Scherzer Fit Into the Blue Jays’ Rotation?

The Blue Jays will head into the 2026 season with a rotation headlined by Kevin Gausman and free agent addition Dylan Cease. The $210 million Cease contract was panned by MLB insiders, but it does give the club a pair of frontline starters. The Blue Jays also brought Cody Ponce back to North America after he spent four years pitching in Asia. Postseason breakout Trey Yesavage will get to shine for a full season.

The pitching staff thinned out a bit with Shane Bieber going down with forearm fatigue and Bowden Francis needing Tommy John surgery. Bieber will be back at some point, but Francis is lost for the year. The injuries will give Jose Berrios a shot to return to the rotation. Scherzer will give the club six names to consider in the rotation. That doesn’t even include Eric Lauer, who was none too happy about being jerked between the rotation and bullpen.

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Blue Jays Make $10 Million Bet Against Max Scherzer’s Health

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