With both the Republican and Democratic campaigns coming down to the final states, the primary races are heating up. Bernie Sanders is slowly closing the gap against Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, but two major states are set to go Clinton’s way. Meanwhile, Republican frontrunner Donald Trump leads Ted Cruz by almost 200 delegates but is a long shot to clinch the nomination without the input of a GOP establishment that’s not too fond of him.
|Democratic Delegate Count||2,383 Needed (Includes Superdelegates)|
|Republican Delegate Count||1,237 Needed|
With the conventions looming, a lot of minds are turning to the general election. RealClearPolitics polling aggregations show that Clinton beats Trump soundly in matchups, and is well ahead in favorability. This can change quickly, though, as an acrimonious Republican race ends.
Here’s a look at the state of the race:
Match-Up Polls: Clinton Holds Substantial Lead
|RealClearPolitics: Clinton vs. Trump||Clinton||Trump|
|NBC News/Wall Street Journal||50||39|
|Public Policy Polling||48||41|
Trump’s last victory against Clinton head-to-head was a 2-point edge in a USA Today poll in February. Clinton has won all but five matchups with Trump since RealClearPolitics began tracking the matchup in May 2015.
Favorability: Clinton Low, Trump Abysmal
Clinton and Trump combine for the most-hated frontrunner duo in favorability polling history. This is certainly bad news for Clinton, but there’s a ray of hope: she’s doing far better than Trump, who is the least-liked candidate since polls began tracking the issue.
|Hillary Clinton Favorability Ratings||Unfavorable||Favorable||Margin|
|Donald Trump Favorability Ratings||Unfavorable||Favorable||Margin|
|ABC News/Washington Post||67||31||-36|
Democrats Favored in the Betting Markets
The betting markets, as aggregated by PredictWise, don’t track hypothetical matchups, and likely won’t handle general election candidates by name until they’re named as such at the party conventions. In party terms, however, the markets like the Democrats’ chances, giving the party a 75 percent chance to take the White House against just 27 for the Republicans.
Part of this, however, is likely due to their confidence in Trump regarding the primaries. Though it was as high as 80 percent at the beginning of March, the markets still hold Trump as a 64 percent favorite to take the nomination. Given Trump’s double-digit losses to both Democratic candidates, it’s a reasonable prediction, but it does require Trump to clinch the nomination, which is very much up in the air.