Why Wasn’t Houston Evacuated Before Hurricane Harvey?

Getty Volunteers and officers from the neighborhood security patrol help to rescue residents and their dogs in the upscale River Oaks neighborhood after it was inundated with flooding from Hurricane Harvey on August 27, 2017 in Houston, Texas.

Why wasn’t Houston evacuated? Why wasn’t there a mandatory evacuation order for the city before the flooding started from Hurricane Harvey? Who made that call?

Those are questions people are asking as horrific images circulated of the dire flooding in the city. People begged for help from rooftops, a man was rescued from a partially submerged semi truck, and families pleaded for rescue on social media. Relatives tell KHOU-TV that six family members – four of them age 16 or under – have now died in the flood while trying to cross a Houston bridge. A man’s living room was so flooded he caught a large fish in it, and in nearby Dickinson, seniors were photographed sitting up to their waists in water in a nursing home. You can read more of those accounts here. The frantic calls for help continued August 28 even as civilians took to boats to assist official rescuers; for example, Houston resident Leidys Shull told CNN “that her home is underwater, and 11 people, including children, are trapped inside,” saying, “It’s just hard to get help here. Nobody is here to help.”

FacebookThe Saldivar family feared missing in the Houston flood. KHOU-TV says relatives have confirmed they died.

As a result of all of the devastation, city and county officials are facing questions about why the evacuation order was not given (“Just stay off the roads. I think that’s the best thing…stock up on some food and games if you have kids, and stay at home,” the Houston mayor told residents on August 25), but based on history and expert opinions, some argue, the evacuation might not have helped, and could have made things worse, as occurred during Hurricane Rita. City officials, though, urged residents to ignore social media posts predicting a more dire situation before the hurricane hit. Some think more provisions should have at least been made for the city’s most vulnerable residents before the flooding or to get those in flood-prone areas out.

houston rainfall totals, houston rain totals

GettyA gauge shows the depth of water a an underpass on Interstate 10 which has been inundated with flooding from Hurricane Harvey on August 27, 2017 in Houston, Texas.

Furthermore, Houston residents were given mixed messages before the storm struck. The Republican governor suggested evacuation, but the Democratic mayor and a Republican judge overseeing the city’s emergency operations suggested otherwise and didn’t order it, urging people to stay put instead. The decision was complicated, others say, by past evacuations that caused problems of their own and by the sheer population size of the city. However, it was no surprise that Houston might flood. CNN noted that Houston “is known for its susceptibility for flooding because of its flatness.”

As The Associated Press put it: “The governor and mayor clashed before Hurricane Harvey made landfall Friday, with (Governor Greg) Abbott suggesting people in Houston might want to evacuate but (Mayor Sylvester) Turner saying fleeing unnecessarily would clog highways for those leaving other communities facing bigger threats.”

Hurricane Harvey was an unparalleled challenge for Texas. The National Weather Service said the storm was unprecedented and catastrophic. At least eight people have died in addition to the family of six, thousands were rescued, and some 911 calls went unanswered. The rain was still coming. Dr. Greg Postel, hurricane specialist for The Weather Channel, said the Houston floods “could be the worst flooding disaster in U.S. history.” Evacuation orders didn’t start being issued until Monday, August 27, for parts of Harris County.

President Donald Trump tweeted on Sunday morning that things were going well. He’s since tweeted several other times on Harvey and is scheduled to go to Texas on August 29.

On Friday, before the hurricane made landfall in Rockport and well before it flooded Houston, Governor Greg Abbott, a Republican, “encouraged residents to evacuate low lying and coastal areas of the state, even if a mandatory evacuation order had not been issued,” reported The Washington Post, quoting Abbott as saying, “Even if an evacuation order hasn’t been issued by your local official, if you’re in an area between Corpus Christi and Houston, you need to strongly consider evacuating. What you don’t know, and what nobody else knows right now, is the magnitude of flooding that will be coming.”

Abbott also said, according to The Houston Chronicle, “A lot of people are going to go a long time without basic necessities. If you have the ability to evacuate and go someplace else for a little while, that would be good.”

On August 25, Abbott told Fox News, “There is an urgent need for people to evacuate as soon as possible.”

Texas governor urges evacuation ahead of Hurricane HarveyGov. Greg Abbott warns of crowded roads, storm surge on 'Happening Now'2017-08-25T16:59:23.000Z

Here’s Abbott in another press conference before the flooding:

WATCH: Texas Governor Greg Abbott Gives URGENT Press Conference Regarding Hurricane HarveyTexas Governor URGENT Press Conference from San Antonio Hurricane Shelter. WATCH: Texas Governor Greg Abbott Gives URGENT Press Conference Regarding Hurricane Harvey WATCH NOW: Texas Governor Greg Abbott Gives URGENT Press Conference Regarding Hurricane Harvey WATCH FULL: Texas Governor Greg Abbott Gives URGENT Press Conference Regarding Hurricane Harvey Subscribe for more: bit.ly/2ul0Cqo We Need Your…2017-08-25T22:41:30.000Z

Abbott also “offered residents options, like to relocate to inland shelters and seek out one of 200 buses being deployed to evacuate residents at the areas expected to be hardest hit,” The Chronicle reported.

Abbott, though, deferred to local officials when it came to a mandatory evacuation order. “Although Houston has a deep history of devastating floods, Abbott said he would stop short of demanding evacuations, saying those decisions should be made by local officials there,” The Houston Chronicle reported on August 25.

National Weather ServiceHouston radar on Sunday August 27.

According to The Post, local officials had the opposite advice. “The governor’s warning was in sharp contrast to the advice local and county officials had been dispensing for days: to shelter and stay in place,” the newspaper reported. Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner, a Democrat, advised people not to evacuate on Twitter before the flooding struck.

“Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner tweeted shortly after the press conference advising people not rush to evacuate,” The Chronicle reported.

“Please think twice before trying to leave Houston en masse. No evacuation orders have been issued for the city,” he wrote. Here’s that tweet:

He made the point more than once, and he also told the public there was no evacuation during a news conference that you can watch later in this story.

On August 24, Turner fired back at what he called unfounded rumors that had, in his words, “needlessly frightened” Houstonians, releasing a statement that read, “No evacuation orders have been issued for the city and none is being considered. Please continue to monitor mainstream news sources for updates on the weather and act accordingly as an informed resident. Rumors are nothing new, but the widespread use of social media has needlessly frightened many people today.”

The mayor even went to the trouble of talking directly to the author of one “false rumor email,” he wrote on Twitter at the time, to get a retraction.

Harris County’s emergency management office also tried to debunk what it called “false emails & FB posts” on August 24. The post it shared predicted 50 inches of rain (which experts are now also predicting) and 100,000 homes destroyed (it’s not clear how many homes are currently flooded in Houston).

Some people have brought this email back up.

Turner, a former Democratic legislator, defended the decision not to issue a mandatory evacuation order on August 27, even after the horrific scenes of flooding. “You literally cannot put 6.5 million people on the road,” Turner said in a press conference. “If you think the situation right now is bad, you give an order to evacuate, you are creating a nightmare.”

Turner told The Associated Press: “The decision that we made was a smart one. It was in the best interest of Houstonians. It was the right decision in terms of their safety and always we must put the interests of the city and Houstonians first. That’s exactly what we did. We did what was the right thing to do.”

Houston Mayor: Evacuation Would Create NightmareHouston Mayor Sylvester Turner is defending his decision not to ask residents to evacuate before the heavy rain from Tropical Storm Harvey swamped roads and neighborhoods across the nation's fourth-largest city. (Aug. 27) Subscribe for more Breaking News: smarturl.it/AssociatedPress Get updates and more Breaking News here: smarturl.it/APBreakingNews The Associated Press is the essential global news…2017-08-27T16:19:37.000Z

As for Abbott, he said Sunday that “now is not the time to second guess the decisions that were made,” and added that “he left several messages on Mr. Turner’s cellphone offering assistance, but hadn’t heard back,” The Wall Street Journal reported.

People who stayed put are also facing a nightmare. Horrific scenes have circulated of families with children trapped on rooftops. This family eventually was rescued:

You can see the list of mandatory and voluntary evacuations on the state’s website.

Judge Ed Emmett and other top officials also told people to stay put. Emmett is “responsible for overseeing emergency operations” in Houston, and he said on Friday: “At this time I can reemphasize there will be no mass evacuations called.”

A Statesman newspaper story on August 26 reported, before the flooding started in earnest, “Harris County Judge Ed Emmett wants his 4 million constituents to know that Harvey isn’t a hurricane for Houston. It’s a rain storm and potentially one of the worst this county has ever faced, he said,” and quoted Emmett as saying, “We’ve been saying for days, this is a rain event, this is not a hurricane. People think hurricane and they think evacuation, and that doesn’t apply to us.”

Emmett and Turner appeared together in an August 25 news conference before the flooding. “At this time, I can reemphasize there will be no mass evacuations called,” Emmett said. “We always say run from water, hide from wind. When we say that, we mean storm surge, not rain. In this case, we will have a lot of of water, but it’s not the kind of water we would ask people to evacuate from.”

Turner said in the news conference that he “echoed everything” that Emmett said. “This is a rainmaker,” he noted. “Just stay off the roads. I think that’s the best thing…stock up on some food and games if you have kids, and stay at home.” He asked people to check on senior citizens in case areas started to flood. “This is not an evacuation for our area.”

You can watch the August 25 press conference with Turner and Emmett here:

VideoVideo related to why wasn’t houston evacuated before hurricane harvey?2017-08-27T17:15:00-04:00

Emmett said before the flooding hit of the governor’s urging for evacuation, according to The Statesman, “It was a mistake, there’s no way around it. What he said was ‘listen to your local officials’, but then he said if he lived here, he’d leave. Well, those are contradictory messages.” Emmett is the GOP’s top elected official in Harris County.

Emmett is also defending the decision not to evacuate. “To suggest we should have evacuated two million people is an outrageous statement,” he said, according to The Wall Street Journal. “What we’re facing now is an effort to respond to a tragedy.…We’ve never seen water like this before.”

houston flood

TwitterA cry for help on Twitter in the Houston floods.

Francisco Sanchez, the spokesman for the Harris County Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, tweeted that residents should follow local officials’ advice. “LOCAL LEADERS KNOW BEST,” he tweeted.

“I live here. I work here. I know here. My job is to protect people here,” he wrote in a second tweet.

Sanchez and local officials have seen what has happened during major storms in Houston in the past, when evacuations were ordered.

Aman Batheja, political editor for the Texas Tribune, wrote on Twitter that the decision to evacuate was more complicated than many realized. For one, he noted, “In 2005, the evacuation of Hurricane Rita was a bigger calamity than the hurricane itself. For days, major highways looked like parking lots. Dozens died before Rita even reached Texas. It was clear in hindsight that many evacuees would have been better off riding out the storm at home.”

He added, “Texas has grown like gangbusters since Rita. Growth in highway capacity hasn’t come close to matching that. Houston is the 4th largest city in the country with 2.3 million people. So as Houston Mayor debated evacuation, he had to weigh whether he was directing millions to sit in traffic as Harvey reached landfall.”

Some people noted that poverty levels can make it very hard for people to evacuate a city.

However, Retired Army Lt. Gen. Russel Honorè, who, according to The Wall Street Journal, “led the Department of Defense response to hurricanes Katrina and Rita,” told the newspaper “that experience has made officials wary of ordering an evacuation. But, he said, officials should have evacuated residents of flood-prone neighborhoods as well as other vulnerable populations like the elderly and homeless.”

“I’m not trying to be critical of the mayor and history will prove whether they guessed right or they guessed wrong,” he said to The Wall Street Journal. “But I do not believe we should leave people in [a] place we know is going to flood. It’s counterintuitive.”

The newspaper also quoted a former George W. Bush administration FEMA official who pointed out that the New Orleans mayor was also criticized for not evacuating that city earlier before Katrina struck despite the urging of FEMA, but who noted that Harvey is on a less predictable path than Katrina. Daily Beast noted that 1.3 million people were evacuated from the New Orleans area before Katrina hit, however.

At the federal level, according to The New York Times, the storm response was shaping up to be “one of the most important tests” of President Donald Trump’s presidency.

The Times noted that Trump took to Twitter as his Homeland Security Adviser Thomas P. Bossert told reporters Trump “has been in close touch with governors of Texas and Louisana,” and also signed a “federal disaster declaration to support the local response in Texas.”

FEMA administrator, Brock Long, former Alabama Emergency Management Agency director, is “leading the federal response effort,” according to The Times.

Federal efforts, according to The Times, include stockpiling water and food and establishing an incident support base.

Critics noted the administration has empty leadership positions at FEMA and proposed budget cuts to FEMA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration programs “and grants that help cities and states prepare for natural disasters to the tune of $667 million,” including a program that “provides funding (to) states and cities to better withstand the impact of hurricanes and coastal storms,” The Times reported.

According to the Houston Chronicle, an estimated 2.5 million people fled the city during Hurricane Rita. More than 100 people died while leaving. The newspaper wrote that the evacuation created “some of the most insane gridlock in U.S. history. More than 100 evacuees died in the exodus. Drivers waited in traffic for 20-plus hours, and heat stroke impaired or killed dozens. Fights broke out on the highway. A bus carrying nursing home evacuees caught fire, and 24 died.”

Madhu Beriwal, the president and CEO of IEM, a disaster planning and prevention company with experience in Harris County, told the Washington Post that officials are attempting to find the “course of least regret,” and that mandatory evacuations come with the understanding some will die while leaving.

“We know that there’s going to result in a certain number of deaths just by having so many people on the road,” Beriwal told the newspaper. “When you have evacuation traffic, it’s even more difficult, because you have people that are very vulnerable traveling. … The people that tend to die in bigger numbers (during evacuations) are generally the elderly — people that wouldn’t normally be on the road anyway.”

CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said it was the right call to not issue an evacuation order.

“He was right when he said, ‘I don’t want 6.5 million people on flooded roadways and dying in their cars,'” Myers said. “You can’t move a city like Houston with six hours’ notice,” he added. “But people shouldn’t need an evacuation order if they live in a flood plain and they see 25 inches of rain coming. The fact that they didn’t even get a voluntary evacuation order … may have led people to stay because there was not even a nudge from local officials.”

Dave Hennen, a meteorologist and Myers’ colleague at CNN, said it was a “one-in-1,000-years type of event” that hit Houston.

“I think people were used to flooding in Houston when they get two to three inches of rain, but nobody comprehended what two to three feet of rain could do,” he said. “This is truly historic, so people were caught off guard.”

Meteorologist Eric Holthaus told The Daily Beast that last week Wednesday there was “pretty compelling model agreement on major flooding” and that the “upgrade in forecast to major hurricane on Thursday morning, I think, made most meteorologists absolutely convinced.” He added, though, that, “there’s never been a mandatory evacuation based on a rainfall forecast, so I’m not sure that people even knew what to do with a forecast as dire as this one,” Daily Beast reported.

Texas governor briefing on floods (full press conference)Texas Gov. Greg Abbott discusses impacts of the upcoming forecast and outlines relief efforts for areas affected by flooding and damage from catastrophic storm Harvey.2017-08-27T21:34:22.000Z

Some people on social media blistered the mayor with criticism, but others said evacuation would have been dangerous because of flooded roads and defended him.

One Texas resident, Barry Kuykendall, wrote Heavy, “I have lived in Houston nearly my whole life… I didn’t leave, and wouldn’t have if they told me to. I haven’t flooded yet, and I’ve weathered Ike, Allison, Alicia, and Katrina. I have watched the areas that flooded, wouldn’t buy a house in one of them.” He added that he believed “people in Houston HAD to know they were in a lowland that was subject to flooding…You can’t live in Houston and not be aware of whether you live in a flood zone. Texans are taught to make their own decisions…”

What’s the role of the feds when it comes to evacuations? According to a mass evacuation document from FEMA:

Federal evacuation measures will be taken: When State, tribal, or local governments indicate that their resources may or have become overwhelmed and the Governor(s) or tribal official(s) request Federal assistance; or in catastrophic incidents when State and local governments are incapacitated, and the President directs that Federal mass evacuation support is required. State authorities in affected areas, in conjunction with authorities in other States, will decide on the destinations for evacuees, and will regulate the flow of transportation assets accordingly. Federal agencies, working with State, tribal, and local governments, will ensure the Governor(s) of State(s) receiving evacuees from an impacted area agree to accept these individuals prior to evacuation.

Some of the scenes were eerily reminiscent of Hurricane Katrina on some levels (not, yet, thankfully in magnitude of deaths and tragedy). However, evacuating Houston – the fourth largest city in the U.S. with a population of more than 2.2 million people – would have been a task of enormous magnitude. New Orleans has fewer than 400,000 people. (The 1900 Galveston hurricane was the nation’s deadliest national disaster, killing up to 12,000 people.)

“Several hundred people arrived at the George R. Brown Convention Center in downtown Houston,” Fox News reported. The Coast Guard and others were staging urban search-and-rescues. Worse, the rain is still coming and could reach 50 inches in some areas of Texas, the “highest ever recorded in the state,” according to Fox. The governor activated nearly 12,000 National Guard troops as thousands of 911 calls flooded in and people begged for rescues on Twitter.

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