Claire McCaskill Polls Show Possible ‘Kavanaugh Effect’

claire mccaskill polls

Getty Claire McCaskill polls show a tight race with Josh Hawley.

The recent polls in Claire McCaskill’s race against Josh Hawley to retain her U.S. Senate seat in Missouri show a tight race, with Hawley leading McCaskill in two of three recent polls. Two recent polls showed that opposition to Brett Kavanaugh might be hurting McCaskill with some Missouri voters.

Hawley now leads in the RealClearPolitics polling average by 0.3 percent, making the race one of the closest in the country. “Neither Josh Hawley nor Claire McCaskill has had a lead of more than four points in a single poll for the entire year, placing this race well within the margin of error. The undecided voters are likely Trump supporters, but it is hard to say which way they’ll go in this volatile election,” RealClearPolitics wrote.

Some have attributed Hawley’s surge to the controversies over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh and McCaskill’s position on Kavanaugh’s nomination. Kavanaugh has been accused of sexual misconduct by three women, all claims he denies. The people named by those women as witnessing various incidents have all said they have no recollection of it or even of being at such parties, however. Hawley is the Missouri attorney general. McCaskill was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006. Other issues have also dominated the race, such as health care.

McCaskill has announced she is voting against Kavanaugh, saying, “It is his allegiance to the position that unlimited donations and dark anonymous money, from even foreign interests, should be allowed to swamp the voices of individuals that has been the determining factor in my decision to vote no on his nomination.” Hawley has made the Kavanaugh situation an issue in the race:

McCaskill is among 10 U.S. Senators who are Democrats but must win election in states that went for President Donald Trump.

Here’s a round up of the recent polls in McCaskill vs. Hawley as of October 2, 2018.

CNN [9/25/18 to 9/29/18]

Claire McCaskill 47%
Josh Hawley 44%

Missouri Scout [9/26/18 to 9/26/18]

Josh Hawley 48%
Claire McCaskill 46%

Voters in this poll were asked if the Brett Kavanaugh confirmation process had made them more or less likely to vote for Claire McCaskill. Most Republicans said less likely, and most Democrats said more likely. However, among non-partisan voters who could determine the race, 46% said less likely, 39% said more likely and 15% said no difference.

Interestingly, both women and men were slightly less likely to vote for McCaskill because of Kavanaugh.

Trafalgar Group [9/11/18 to 9/13/18]

Josh Hawley 47%
Claire McCaskill 44%

This poll showed that Hawley is still ahead but by less if McCaskill votes for Kavanaugh. In other words, McCaskill’s standing in the poll would improve if she sided with Brett Kavanaugh. Hawley’s lead grows to 48.9% versus 43.2% if McCaskill votes against Kavanaugh.

CBS News/YouGov [9/10/18 to 9/14/18]

Claire McCaskill 45%
Josh Hawley 45%

Fox News [9/8/18 to 9/11/18]

Claire McCaskill 45%
Josh Hawley 45%

NBC News/Marist [8/25/18 to 8/28/18]

Claire McCaskill 47%
Josh Hawley 47%