Hurricane Dorian is currently located approximately 255 miles east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas, moving northwest toward the state of Florida at 12 mph.
Dorian is expected to make landfall somewhere on Florida’s east coast as a Category 4 storm on Monday or early Tuesday. The current map (above) on the National Hurricane Center’s website has Dorian’s center sitting off of Florida’s east coast, somewhere near Jupiter. However, the exact landfall location is unpredictable at this time and could be anywhere along the east coast that is within the “cone of uncertainty.”
The photo above also shows Dorian’s projected path. The storm’s exact track is impossible to nail down due to varying air pressure in the atmosphere. For this reason, the “cone of uncertainty” is drawn to show the area in which Dorian could go.
“Not a ton of good news today. Stronger storm. Hurricane winds now extend 25 miles. And eventually, slowing down after potential landfall to make flooding concerns a real issue for much of the state,” Tampa-area meteorologist Denis Phillips wrote on Facebook.
For the first time in a week, the GFS and the European computer models are starting to align when it comes to an overall track of Dorian. Both models seem to agree that Dorian will make landfall close to the Gold or Treasure coast early next week before moving inland and eventually turning north.
The GFS seems to want to keep Dorian along the coast, making that northern turn closer to the Atlantic. This model previously predicted that Dorian would ride up the coastline, not making landfall in Florida at all.
Meanwhile, the Euro model sees Dorian making landfall further south and traveling a little further west before making a turn north.
You can see some of the other models on the spaghetti map below.
Here’s what you need to know:
The GFS Model Has Moved Dorian’s Path South & Takes the Storm Across the Peninsula
The GFS Model had been sparing most of Florida by keeping Dorian more north. However, the latest run seems more in line with the Euro. The GFS now suggests that Dorian will make landfall in southeast Florida before moving across the peninsula, headed for the Tampa area.
“A very small fluctuation in the overall weather pattern will have a large influence in where Dorian ultimately tracks and how it impacts the continental U.S.,” said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty.
The GFS model suggests that almost every inch of the state of Florida will see some impact from Dorian — even if it’s only increased rain chances.
You can see the GFS model below.
The Euro Model Has Been Fairly Consistent & Seems to Keep Dorian in Central-East Florida
The Euro model has been the most trustworthy, storm after storm. The current Euro model predicts that Dorian will make landfall on Florida’s east coast, perhaps close to Fort Lauderdale, and move inland before turning north.
“Should Dorian remain over land for the duration after reaching Florida, the system will slowly weaken and rain itself out over the southeastern corner of the U.S. during Labor Day and beyond,” according to Accuweather.
The Euro model keeps Dorian in the central portions of the state and even pulls the storm more to the east, heading back up the Atlantic coast.
You can see the Euro model below: