The start of Week 15 signals the beginning of either major playoff pushes for many teams, or the potential to start looking towards the offseason for others. But on Thursday Night Football, the NFL schedule makers gave us a matchup with major playoff implications. AFC West rivals in the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs will square off in a crucial spot for both.
Although this game does mean a bit more for the Chargers, it's still big for Kansas City as well. The Chargers, who sit at 10-3 currently, can move into a first-place tie in the division with the Chiefs (11-2) with a road win here. While both teams are widely-considered as locks to make the postseason, it now comes down to deciding who wins the division crown.
The Chargers hold a three-game lead in the Wild Card race while the Chiefs are two games ahead of the New England Patriots for the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Obviously, that can all get a bit muddied after Thursday night, but regardless, this matchup makes for a must-see primetime matchup.
As we've become accustomed to with primetime games, fantasy football players are fortunate enough to get some great single-game options on various DFS sites. With the season-long leagues beginning to wind down and championships set to be decided, it's left many to focus on daily games.
More specifically, the DraftKings showdown slates are always popular and should be popular for the Chargers vs. Chiefs matchup. I'll break down this entire single-game slate by providing picks and optimal lineups. This will include three different lineups – one of which is the optimal (well-rounded), a 150-max option (high upside, more risk) and then the single entry/cash lineup (safer options).
Last but not least, we have the great debate over the captain spot in DraftKings games, which is a bonus spot that also comes with a higher price tag for whichever player you place there. Selecting the right captain can go a long way toward both having success and also differentiating your lineups to the point where you can push to take down a big tournament. I'll offer top choices for that spot as well, and insight as to why I like specific captains.
Let's lay out the basics of showdown games before anything, for those who haven't played before.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
The captains are up first, so we'll begin with top plays in the bonus spot while evaluating both expensive and inexpensive options in the process. There's certainly some strategy that goes into choosing a captain, especially in a game such as this one.
Once we wrap up the captain selection, I'll dive right into the lineups, starting with the optimal and moving along from there.
Captain Breakdown for Chargers vs. Chiefs
If Thursday night's NFL game provides a showdown outlook similar to a few of the other recent ones we've seen, then we're going to be in for a pretty wild ride. Just one week ago we watched the Tennessee Titans roll to a 30-9 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. While that wasn't surprising, the fact that Derrick Henry, who had been quiet from a yardage standpoint all year, ripped off 238 yards and four scores, certainly was.
That game alone proved that anything can happen in primetime and while focusing on the stats and numbers is a key way to build, playing off the situation is important as well. The Chiefs and Chargers boast impressive offenses, but that doesn't necessarily mean the top matchups are the only players to target.
With that said, the bulk of captain choices will come down to key matchups and good spots, but I'll stray a bit from that here. After all, this game comes with a projected total of 53.5 (per Odds Shark), and it's still rising. The Chiefs also sit as 3.5-point favorites at this moment, so oddsmakers are expecting a close game.
A solid way to construct lineups and even pick captains can be by utilizing the odds and projected total to predict your own game script. If you think we're going to see a shootout with a ton of back-and-forth, then targeting boom-or-bust players with touchdown upside makes sense. I'll dig deeper into that, but there are certainly some offensive weapons on both sides worth of captain consideration for this DraftKings showdown slate.
Favorite Captain Choices
I'll lock down on 4-5 (sometimes a one more or less) names who I like in the captain spot. The reason I pick such a high number is that it allows me to remain flexible in the construction of lineups. Below the choices, I'll also lay out the 2-3 names who stand out as my favorite from that bunch (broken down by expensive and inexpensive).
Here's a look at the top targets for game one of the Week 15 slate, all of which feature the 1.5x price tag on Draftkings.
– Patrick Mahomes ($18,600)
– Keenan Allen ($16,200)
– Tyreek Hill ($15,600)
– Justin Jackson ($10,200, if Melvin Gordon out)
– Demarcus Robinson ($6,900)
– Damien Williams ($6,000)
*Philip Rivers ($16,800) is a fine option while Travis Kelce ($15,300) has upside as always.
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill
Top value-saving captains: Justin Jackson, Damien Williams
For the most part, I find myself not spending up to nearly $19,000 on a captain, but Patrick Mahomes may very well prove to be the rare exception. There's so much value here, especially if Melvin Gordon is ruled out, that using an expensive captain makes a lot of sense. Obviously, some of the less expensive plays will come with a fair amount of risk, but there are some great spots.
If you're paying down at captain in order to load up on the rest of the roster, it's going to be hard to look past Justin Jackson. If both Gordon and Austin Ekeler are ruled out, Jackson should see a huge workload and have little trouble producing against a Chiefs defense who's struggled against running backs.
The two top wide receivers on both teams in Keenan Allen and Tyreek Hill are certainly worth considering and are great mid-range options due to their upside. Hill is currently dealing with a foot injury but is fully expected to play. That aspect alone could drive down his ownership a bit and makes him even more appealing if you believe he can continue playing at a high level.
Let's start things off with the optimal lineup and I'll break down the specific plays along the way.
Kansas City Chiefs WR Tyreek Hill
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Keenan Alen ($16,200)
– Patrick Mahomes ($12,400)
– Philip Rivers ($11,200)
– Demarcus Robinson ($4,600)
– Damien Williams ($4,000)
– Detrez Newsome ($1,600)
In a similar spot to the optimal lineup, you'll need to be prepared to pivot if Melvin Gordon plays. With this being a 150-max lineup, there are quite a few ways to approach the changes, but I'm interested in replacing Detrez Newsome with Charcandrick West if that's the case.
Although West (who didn't play last week), costs just $800, if Spencer Ware is out, there's a very real chance he could have a solid workload alongside Damien Williams. And while using the two Chiefs running backs in the same lineup together seems risky, there's no question this team is capable of putting up huge points. Production from both players is a very realistic possibility.
Obviously, when evaluating a 150-max lineup like this, the risk is understandable and calculated. With West, we're talking about a player who already knows the Chiefs offense and is almost a free space on this slate for that price. He's worth using in big games, although I won't go crazy with playing him here.
On the Newsome front, he's a player I'm incredibly intrigued by for a variety of reasons. He's virtually been a non-factor this year, meaning that all the game log hunters are going to see that and move right along. But if Gordon/Ekeler are both out and it's only Jackson shouldering the load, Newsome will get his chance to shine.
When looking back at Newsome's collegiate career at Western Carolina (per the Washington Post), he showcased the ability to do everything, which bodes well against the Chiefs here. I mentioned previously how Kansas City can be picked apart by running backs both on the ground and through the air. Over Newsome's four seasons in college, he averaged 6.0 yards per carry with 3,728 yards, 109 receptions for 962 yards and 44 offensive touchdowns.
Demarcus Robinson vs. Chris Conley Debate
I'm interested to see what the ownership percentage for Chiefs wideout Demarcus Robinson looks like on this slate. Due to the fact that he's just slightly less expensive than Chris Conley, though, I think most will jump up to Conley.
With that said, last week was somewhat of a breakout for Robinson, and I mean that more from the side of his workload. While playing a part in replacing the injured Sammy Watkins, he ran a season-high 41 routes and played 65 percent of the offensive snaps (per Football Outsiders). Those numbers all bode well, and I believe if Kelvin Benjamin is active, it will only lower Robinson's ownership even more.
The young wideout hauled in 5-of-7 targets last week for 42 yards, and while those numbers won't blow you away, he's been slowly trending up. His increased production played a part in Conley seeing just three targets, catching two fo them for 13 yards. I'll have Robinson as a tournament play and Conley more in a single-entry/cash spot.
Both Chiefs receivers are in play, and I'd prefer them over Benjamin, without question. Even if the former Carolina Panthers/Buffalo Bills wideout does play, it'll almost certainly be limited snaps. Sure, maybe we catch a bad break and Benjamin finds the end zone, but he won't see enough work to justify using.
Rolling along to the single entry/cash lineup, it'll feature a far more balanced, but provides a fair amount of upside also.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Justin Jackson ($10,200)
– Philip Rivers ($11,200)
– Keenan Allen ($10,800)
– Travis Kelce ($10,200)
– Damien Williams ($4,000)
– Michael Badgley ($3,200)
For the wonderful topic of "what we do if Melvin Gordon plays," this one gets a bit tough, largely because I like how this lineup worked out. Should that be the case, Gordon is an exceptional cash game option and provides one of the safest floors imaginable.
If that winds up as the case, there are a few different routes to go. For starters, you can consider using Gordon as the captain if the rest of the lineup works out. I'd personally consider putting Damien Williams in the top spot and replacing Jackson and Philip Rivers for Gordon and Tyreek Hill for single entry/cash games.
Hill does carry a bit more risk, but based on that lineup, he'd also provide the ceiling needed, mixed with a heavy workload. As you can see, we're back to the Hill/Keenan Allen pairing in that situation, and I won't have much of an issue with that at all. While I'm not planning on using the duo everywhere, I do think opting to pair them up in 40-45 percent of lineups is a wise call.
As for the rest of the actual lineup, I'll go back to the Justin Jackson pairing with Williams briefly. The Chargers running back provides us with a high-floor, high-ceiling option, which is something you'll have a hard time finding at this price. Jackson makes for a great captain in single entries and cash games.
The same can be said for Williams, and while both matchups are great, each player should receive a heavy workload. At just $4,000, Williams won't need much to hit value and the Chargers haven't been great against running backs this year. To this point, they've given up 1,119 rushing yards, 754 receiving yards and 11 total touchdowns.
Travis Kelce and Philip Rivers Selections
It's almost a bad feeling to not have mentioned Travis Kelce to this point. The Chiefs tight end has proven to be one of the best tight ends in the entire NFL and has been nearly unstoppable this season. Kelce has totaled 86 receptions for 1,159 yards and 10 touchdowns while receiving 123 targets from Patrick Mahomes.
There's no question that Mahomes trusts his talented tight end, and proof of that comes from his 37 targets in the past three games. In that stretch, Kelce has hit 127 yards or more in two of the three games while catching four touchdowns.
So, now for the million dollar question – why has Kelce not been in a lineup before this?
Well, the 29-year-old has been held to fewer than five catches one time this season. And if you aren't into guessing games, I'll just tell you that the team who held him in check was the Chargers. In Week 1, Kelce had by far his worst performance of the season, catching 1-of-6 targets for six yards.
One game wouldn't be enough to scare me off, but as StatMuse shows, Kelce's struggles against the Chargers go back far beyond this season. In the three games since the 2017 season, he's caught just eight passes for 53 yards and no touchdowns. Even going to the year prior (2016) Kelce had one productive game with six catches for 74 yards, but his other featured one catch for eight yards.
As far as the Philip Rivers situation goes, I simply wanted to clarify that I do like his spot here. The Chargers are in a crucial game and he's been playing well. He hasn't made the lineups prior to this, but that doesn't mean he's not in a good spot. The Chiefs have allowed 2,952 yards and 25 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks, making this a strong spot for him.
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