Bills vs. Cowboys Prediction: Best Prop Bets For Thanksgiving Day

Getty Josh Allen & Frank Gore of the Buffalo Bills

There is controversy swirling around the Dallas Cowboys this week as they prepare to take on the Buffalo Bills in the annual Thanksgiving Day game at AT&T Stadium. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones called out head coach Jason Garrett after Sunday’s tough 13-9 loss to the New England Patriots. The team now has a short week to regroup before facing a Bills team that boasts the third-ranked defense in the NFL.

Buffalo is coming off an impressive 20-3 win over the Denver Broncos last Sunday where they allowed just 134 yards of total offense. Josh Allen has been impressive under center this season. The second-year quarterback has thrown eight touchdowns and just one interception in his last five games. According to ESPN’s FPI, the Cowboys have a 78.5% chance of winning the game.

For those of you that don’t want to bet on the outcome of the game, we break down the matchup and offer our best prop bets and analysis for Thursday’s NFC North matchup between the Bears and Lions.

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Bills vs. Cowboys Game Details

Date: Thursday, November 28
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
Spread: Cowboys -6.5
Total: 46.5

*All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Analysis & Prop Bets

The Bills have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in the NFL this season. Dak Prescott‘s passing yards prop is going off at 265.5 on FanDuel. Prescott has exceeded that number six times in 11 games this season and I don’t expect him to get over that mark against Buffalo’s stingy defense. Take the under.

PICK: Dak Prescott under 265.5 passing yards (-112)

Josh Allen has rushed for 56 yards in each of the last two games. His legs have been a surprising weapon for the Bills offense this season. FanDuel has Allen’s rushing prop listed at 36.5 yards. Take the over and hope Allen can continue his success on the ground.

PICK: Josh Allen over 36.5 rushing yards (-112)

I think this is a good spot for the Bills offense. They are coming off two impressive victories and scored a combined 57 points in those games. The Cowboys defense is a middling unit that is without their best linebacker Leighton Vander Esch who will his third game in five weeks with a neck injury. I think Buffalo is able to keep pace with Dallas and at the least, cover their team total.

PICK: Buffalo team total over 20 (-112)

Cole Beasley is facing his former team for the first time. The slot receiver has been a big part of Buffalo’s offense this season and I expect him to show up against the team he spent the previous five seasons with. While his receptions and receiving yards prop are a bit inflated for my liking, the anytime touchdown prop has some nice value at almost 3-to-1.

PICK: Cole Beasley anytime TD scorer (+290)

I need to throw a positive Cowboys in here to diversify the portfolio a bit and Ezekiel Elliot seems to be a good buy-low candidate. The Bills actually are a below-average unit against the run according to DVOA and Elliot has only scored one touchdown in the last four games so he is due to find the end zone.  Lay the juice as this seems like a sure thing.

PICK: Ezekiel Elliott anytime TD scorer (-210)

READ NEXTBills vs. Cowboys Prediction: Betting Odds, Spread & Pick

Follow Jared Smith on Twitter: @jaredleesmith