Well before the 2025 season began, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning was the heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy — despite having limited starts.
Once again, Manning enters 2026 among the favorites, currently sitting at +850 odds according to FanDuel.
This time, however, he’ll have far more experience under his belt. Manning started all 13 games for the Longhorns last season, giving him 15 career starts overall.
It wasn’t always smooth for the redshirt sophomore. At times, Manning appeared overwhelmed, leading to inconsistency. There were stretches where he struggled to locate open receivers and forced throws into coverage.
Still, the production was there.
In 2025, Manning threw for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions while completing 61.4% of his passes. He also rushed for 399 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He even caught a touchdown pass.
Those numbers provide a foundation for Manning and head coach Steve Sarkisian to build upon heading into 2026, where the goal is clear: take the next step and lead Texas back to the College Football Playoff.
Arch Manning Predicted to Break Coveted Longhorns’ Passing Record
When it comes to Manning, bold predictions are never in short supply.
CBS Sports’ Cody Nagel offered one of the more aggressive takes, predicting Manning will break Colt McCoy’s single-season passing touchdown record in 2026.
“The Longhorns went all-in on surrounding Arch Manning with more offensive weapons, including the addition of former five-star wide receiver Cam Coleman from Auburn in the transfer portal,” Nagel wrote. “Colt McCoy’s single-season passing touchdown mark of 34 has stood since 2008, with Sam Ehlinger and Quinn Ewers both coming close in recent years. But Manning finally tops it — even if it requires a deep playoff run to get there.”
McCoy holds several key Texas passing records, including single-season passing yards (3,859) and completion percentage (76.7%).
Notably, McCoy’s record-setting season came in a 13-game campaign. If Texas makes a deep playoff run in the expanded format, Manning could potentially play up to 16 games — giving him additional opportunities to eclipse that mark.
For context, McCoy finished second in the Heisman Trophy voting that year behind Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford, who threw for 4,720 yards, 50 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
Texas Transfer Portal Class Key to Arch Manning’s 2026 Leap
Texas’ 2026 transfer portal class, ranked No. 3 nationally by 247Sports, adds significant pressure — and opportunity — heading into the new season.
As Nagel noted, 10 of the Longhorns’ 19 portal additions are on the offensive side of the ball. That group includes four-star receiver Hollywood Smothers, four-star running back Raleek Brown and five-star receiver Cam Coleman.
On3 listed Coleman as one of the most impactful additions in the country. Pairing him with Manning could elevate both players’ ceilings.
“Former Auburn receiver Cam Coleman was one of the best players available in the portal, and his arrival gives Manning a true No. 1 threat that was missing last fall,” The Athletic’s Antonio Morales wrote.
Coleman, a former five-star recruit in the 2024 class, was ranked as the No. 2 wide receiver and No. 5 overall prospect nationally. However, he lacked consistent quarterback play at Auburn.
With Manning at quarterback and Sarkisian orchestrating the offense, that dynamic could change quickly.
Arch Manning Predicted to Break Legendary Texas QB’s 18-Year Record In 2026